I'm also worried about the US and doubt they will go far. They have a very favorable set-up, but that just makes it feel like they'll blow it. Their Group D competition isn't great - Turkiye, Paraguay, and Australia - so they should at least make it out of the group. If they win the group they are one of the 8 out of 12 first place finishers who get to face a third place team. There are some scary possibilities in that potential third place team (Norway? Senegal? Japan? Sweden?), but generally a better option than facing a runner-up. If they are the runner-up in Group D then they would face the runner up of Group G - probably Egypt, Iran, or New Zealand. Who knows if Iran will play in the tournament, but that possible matchup on July 3 would certainly be the most newsworthy of the round of 32. Either way of getting out of the group stage, the US should be well positioned to win their second knock-out game ever. Despite those advantages I still don't think this team will do it. They just haven't shown a recent ability to play well as a team despite individual talent that is pretty good. 

The World Cup kicks off today! Mexico and South Africa get things started at 3pm EDT.

I have to admit that Antonee Robinson's spectacular volley against Germany has improved my attitude about the USMNT. There is no good reason for that change, it was just a singular shot, but I loved it SO much, now I'm feeling a bit more excitement than worry. We'll see how long that last tomorrow night when they actually play. 

The good news is that they looked much better vs Senegal and Germany. The bad news is I feel that the Germany match tells the tale of the USMNT. They’ll be competitive, but aren’t likely to beat any of the top tier teams. Given the expanded tournament, they’ll probably crash out after the first knockout round. 

I’m genuinely excited for the entire tournament though. No other competition rivals the World Cup. 

Raul may not be a Fulham player anymore, but I was still thrilled that he scored yesterday. It is kind of crazy that it was his first WC goal and it clearly meant a lot to him as emotions welled up while he celebrated with his teammates (just don't smack him on the head please!)

I was a bit worried after a match with three red cards (two I consider soft) that the referees would be deciding too much in these games, but the South Korea/Czechia match only had one yellow shown at the very end. Hopefully the opener was just a one-off. 

I wonder if FIFA has learned anything after seeing so many empty seats in the second match. They've really made this tournament seem like a pain to attend. Two locations are a day-trip for me but the thought of attending in person never crossed my mind because the cost and the effort seemed too steep.

What a start for the USA!

I was trying to think of someone or some part of the match that was poor. The only thing that came to mind was their inability to handle the long ball that led to Paraguay’s goal. Other than that, near perfect. Everybody did their job and Balogun looked like the star that we expected back when he committed to the US. 

It was an incredible night for the USMNT. It was probably their best performance ever, and I certainly found it the most enjoyable to watch. Even in past big wins, there was a nervous energy - could the US hold on? This was such a complete victory that nervous energy never appeared. The US was so confident, it was a thrill to watch. They were pulling the Paraguay defense in different directions and then utilizing the space that opened up. And when they weren't doing that they were being direct with their dribbling and keeping Paraguay on their heels. Off the ball their press was really good too. I was most impressed with Tillman, but I was also happy to see Robinson playing well too. This win probably is enough to put the US through, but it would be really nice to keep going and win the group.

In other World Cup matches, I thought Luc De Fougerolles looked pretty good for Canada. A lot of the offense started with him as they built up from the back. He looked very confident and comfortable with that responsibility.

I've also thought the Premier League could take some tips from the officiating. The VAR process and visualizations are working much better than in the PL. The lines are drawn from the video in a way that makes sense. I also thought the mistaken identity change that turned Ream's yellow into Almiron's yellow was a great addition. I hate flopping and was glad to see Almiron get called on it. 

That was an incredible first half from the US. I think I’ll go to Telemundo for the rest of the games, though. Between Lalas and everything being a commercial, I hate the Fox production. 

The US didn't have as good a showing against Australia, but they still got the job done. I actually think that Australia got the game they wanted, they just didn't convert their chances when they came. It seemed like Australia was willing to let the US have the ball for large parts of the game, they would just limit any good looks. They did that pretty well and the US only got the lead through two scrappy goals. 

With Turkiye's shocking loss to 10-man Paraguay, the US wins the group and Turkiye is out meaning the next match is no more meaningful than a friendly. That is the first time the US has won its group with only two games played. 

On the After the Whistle podcast, Brenden Hunt said the US fans sang "Na, na, na, na, hey, hey, hey, goodbye" to the Australians, which made him happy since the US is relatively bad when it comes to singing at matches, but Americans can do that one! It is also a sign of how dominant the US has been that it could get late into the match and the US could be confident they had it wrapped up. 

The US hasn't had to face a notable WC opponent yet (Brazil, France, Argentina, Germany, etc.) but they've effectively gotten the job done against mid-tier opposition, even when Pulisic was out. That's all we can ask for at this point. I can't imagine things going much better outside of Pulisic's calf.

In other World Cup thoughts, I hope some of these rule changes make it to the Premier League. The matches have avoided lots of time wasting and frivolous injury treatment. The VAR reviews have also been quick and generally without controversy. Fans have been booing the water breaks, but I don't even mind those too much given the other updates that improved the pace of things.

The US has a 99.6% chance to face Bosnia Herzegovina in the knockout round, based on the seeding rules documented at Wikipedia. There is a 0.4% the US will face Senegal/Iraq. That would only happen if South Korea, Scotland, Paraguay/Australia, and Sweden/Tunisia all finished outside the top 8 third place finishers. Given that South Korea has three points and only a -1 GD it is unlikely they won't make it in the top 8, and if Paraguay and Australia draw they both go through. 

So bottom line, it looks like Bosnia Herzegovina is up next. They were giant killers in qualifiers and they've been tough in Group B. They defeated Qatar, held Canada, and played tough against Switzerland until going down to 10 men with 10 minutes to play. It is a very competent third place finisher that the US will have to deal with.