Tifo Analysis of Fulham

Discussion in 'Fulham FC News and Notes' started by MicahMan, Mar 22, 2023.

  1. MicahMan

    MicahMan Administrator

    Mar 4, 2014
    Tifo did an analysis of why it appears Fulham is over-performing based on their xG (and this includes a great explaination of xG):

    Slightly related fun fact: What is the only team in the Premier League that hasn't gotten a single point against any of the top five teams? Yep, Fulham.

    I had a couple follow-up thoughts on this:
    • In the three matches without Palhinha, Fulham has played top-half teams and given up 10 goals while only scoring three. With Palhinha on the pitch, Fulham has never lost by more than a goal to a top half team. I'm certain Palhinha moves the top half/bottom half stats for Fulham.
    • Leno has played really well, but I'd love to see further analysis on the expected goals against Fulham. How often did opposing players just blow it, how often did Leno make a great "unexpected" save, how often did Tim Ream magically appear on the line and clear the ball? Also, is there something about Fulham's defensive alignment that keys on stopping top goal-scorers thereby forcing teams to let lower quality finishers take shots? Essentially I want to know if outperforming xGA is due to luck or skill.
    • Fulham has been on a knife's edge this season. 78% of Fulham's matches have been a one goal margin or a draw. Compare that to 74% for Chelsea, 60% for Brentford, and 48% for Aston Villa. Those "unexpected" saves have been a huge difference for Fulham changing losses to draws and draws to wins. A few more of those xGA's become reality and Fulham's table position changes pretty significantly. This is on my mind for next season - will Fulham continue to come out ahead in these measures or will the stats catch up or will Fulham improve enough to be as good statistically as their position in the top half of the table.
    SoCalJoe and nevzter like this.
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