President McCain

Wow Don, never thought I'd see you go Red.

...Although McCain is more purple at this point.

I respect your arguments and have no desire to argue with you but here's what I dont like about him:

a) he's currently 71. i'm not an ageist, in fact i really love older people. but i'm sorry but that is just way too old for me. hopefully it will make him only run for one term, by which he'll be 76.

b)he's a washington insider. the mccain-feingold and mccain-leiberman and mccain-kennedy bills were all crafted in backrooms and ham fisted through the house and senate. i'm not arguing with the merits of them, but when there are very large and consequential bills (particularly the immigration bill), they should be subject to referendum. maybe i'm some idealist democrat, (notice the small 'd') but thats what i think.

c)stating it'll take 100 years for the us to be in iraq. codeword for: we're not going anywhere.

 

I can't see McCain winning the election against either Clinton or Obama. Why? The Blue states will remain Blue states and the Red states will remain Red states, but in the 12 key Swing states, the Republican base won't vote in high numbers, leaving the far more enthused Democratic base to carry the election in those states.

From a Conservative Republican perspective, there isn't much difference between McCain and Obama/Clinton, so why bother making the effort to vote? Yes, it sounds cynical, but is the key issue facing McCain over the next 9 months.

Heck, at this point, I'm inclined to vote, but write in "Mitt Romney" rather than vote for McCain.

 

ANd don't forget that he's a member of the Keating 5.

 

Iraq will be in the campaign rhetoric, but it's not really an issue. No matter whether you're pro-Iraq war or not, we aint going to leave till it's 'un-broke' as we can make it. Unlees the Iraqi government kicks us out. Which might happen but the Iraqi people wont like that.. if the Iraqi people have no say in it, though, it doesnt matter.
The '100 years' is nothing but empty talking point. We wouldnt still be in Korea if we {troops} were constantly at risk, we wouldnt still be in Europe if troops were constantly at risk.

What IS the issue is the class-identity politics which is why so many conservatives dont like McCain and why he is the 'best of a bad lot' for the left.

That means, despite his own admission he's weak on Economics, he's liable to fall for the same spin that says corporate profits steal from the people, never mind the people own those corporations.

That's why I'm sorta cranky. He's saying he's fully on board with Conservatives and we should be with him, but his record for getting screwed like a pooch in his cross-aisle efforts despite his budget cutting platform aint saying much. Hell, even Henry Waxman is now on record against all the pork giveaways... for this year, that is.

Add to that, it's just come out that George Soros is a major funder of McCains foundation. Of course that's just coincidental to this thread... Don doesnt know who he is. Never mind he is the prime mover of progressive politics funding in the country.

But his age? Means nothing.. 71 isnt 'old' anymore. It's early elderly...or late mature. Five years of physical deprivation effect, who knows.

 

McCain will NOT win the general election. I hope that statement does not come back to bite me in November. I just do not see him beating either Obama or Clinton. I actually think he could put together a Dole-esque performance in November.

 

Sorry, Tom. McCain COULD beat Clinton, like a drum. PEOPLE JUST DONT LIKE HER!!! And they are tired of the Clinton Vaudeville melodrama.

And as said above, in practice there's no clear distinction, other than a few high-cost entitlement programs, between Hillary and McCain.

 

McCain could well win the general against either candidate. I think Obama's odds are better than Clintons. There is as p-fog states huge resistance to her and while there may be initial resistance to Obama because of preconceptions, misconceptions, and a liberal voting record he has shown the ability to overcome these. As Pat Buchanan keeps saying he has a high ceiling and a low floor.

Couple things which I think are pivotal in a Obama-McCain matchup.

-Where is the country's head truly at on Health Care. I don't think the GOP's typical po-ping of Nat'l health care will do this time. But will mainstream voters be ready to jump on board with Bama's plan? Either way McCain will have to be sympathetic to the current situation and offer more than the current status quo.

-McCain will hammer him on Iraq. (He's waving the white flag of surrender, Al-Qaeda will tell the world they have defeated the United States, I will not allow that to happen,ect.) The question is will Obama be able to hold up? Will voters buy the attacks or be put off by them? And will bama be able to convince mainstream voters that his more direct yet more passive style of foreign policy is the way to go?

-How successfully will Obama be able to tie McCain to Bush?

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As far as electability and balancing out the ticket I think Obama should pick Jim Webb as his VP. His fight it out aggressive style would contrast nicely with Obama's JFKesque vibe. I believe he'd be quite useful in the general responding to McCain’s attacks and winning over skeptical voters.

 

Webb would be an interesting choice, and it's evident that you've put some thought into this, eh Spencer?... However, I have a suspicion that Wesley Clark may emerge from the shadows...wait, wasn't this thread about McCain?

 

Whether McCain becomes President is likely in the hands of the Democrats. If Democrats nominate Clinton, they (we) will have effectively elected McCain. He will kill her in a general election. But - despite Don's well thought out points - I believe that if Obama gets the nomination his charisma, pragmatism, momentum and the heightened involvement of young Democrats and Independents will propel him to the Presidency. The Democratic primaries/caucuses have had 44% higher turnout than their Republican counterparts. Democrats are clearly motivated to take back the White House and the presence of young, often first time, voters coming out for Obama cannot be ignored. Nor can the fact that with every primary, his numbers amongst white men go up.

 

MCain still hasn't won over the Southern Conservatives, as shown by his showing in VA. Without them, he'll lose to either Democratic Nominee.

 

I'm seeing where Don's going with this.

Yesterday I read a piece by some blogger {lost the url} who says the Dems wont really mind if they lose the election, as long as Obama is the nominee that loses.
It's a win-win. They can point out they swept out the old, the Repubs are bigots and throwbacks, and fall more solidly leftward.
Explains all the former DNC chairs backing Obama.

This also explains why the Senate Dem Campaign Committee is really strident in their calls for a veto-proof majority.

In inside circles, I would bet the Dems think that McCain isnt much worse than having Hillary in there

 

Nice posts, alot of good thoughts. Hell Fog and Don are agreeing....scary.

I think McCain will beat both Clinton and Obama because he will win the middle/independents, I believe Reps will turnout just out of fear, though McCain is not their kind of conservative. His advisors will shred Clinton and Obama, who are both already weakened by their extended battle. There is a lot of 'there' there with both of them for the Reps. to give people enough pause to not pull their levers. My guess is only hardcore Dems and the majority of the under 35 crowd will vote for Obama or Queen Hilary.....oops I gave myself away.