College Football 2017-2018

Great call on Oklahoma Matt.

 

Ditto on Matt's thought on Iowa-ISU

Missed the WSU-Boise St finish, but shocked Wazzu didn't 'Coog' it and actually won in the 3rd OT.

Speaking of absurd, have you ever wanted to see a 3rd and 93 situation? How is that even possible you ask? watch what happens in the LA Tech game vs Mississippi State on a 2nd and goal:

 

That play in the video was absurd.

Joe, yeah a buddy of mine in Bellingham (UDub grad) and I were joking about that via text because as Wazzu started to make a comeback, they went into Coog mode. Then Boise ripped off a string of 2-3 inexplicable errors and it was a game again. That game was like watching two rednecks playing "hold my beer."

 

Not a huge slate of marquee games (especially w/Miami-Florida State being postponed);

#23 Tennessee at #24 FlArida (Still No O). Fla has traditionally owned the series in recent memory, but I have zero idea how good they are after getting whooped by Michigan. The Vols had a nice but unimpressive (very entertaining though) win over GTech and cruised over a cupcake last week. Will take UT and know that's probably a mistake given history.

#12 LSU at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have rolled over a couple of small schools, but have to be feeling good about themselves nonetheless (Dan Mullen is a very solid coach), and their fans will have the cowbells ready. In typical LSU fan reaction, there are rumblings if Coach Odgeron was the right call, a loss and those will only get louder. Hard to pick, but I'll go w/the Bayou Bengals, but certainly hoping I'm wrong (who doesn't like the Cowbell?)


GAME of the WEEK
#3 Clemson at #14 Louisville. If there was a time for Louisville to spring the upset this is it. First home game of the season for UL, and it's a Sat. night. Conversly it's the first roadie for Clemson and first road start for their QB Kelly Bryant. The defending champs are also coming off a physical game w/Auburn. Will go w/Clemson based on this stat; No team has sacked the QB more since the beginning of last season than the Tigers, and no QB has been sacked more than Lamar Jackson over that same time period. However, it would not be a stunner if the Cards get it done @jumpkutz , did you find yourself a ticket? or are you grilling and kicking it w/friends?

Upset Alert:
#25 UCLA at Memphis. Here comes the east coast bias rant. UCLA will attempt to have lights out at their hotel probably at 10pm (7 o'clock for the players), breakfast at 6am Memphis time (3am for the players) and kickoff at Noon Eastern, 9 am for UCLA...sorry but that's Bulls#&t! Add in Memphis having 2 weeks to prepare, and this has upset written all over it.

#19 Stanford at San Diego State; Does this tell you of what I think of the Pac 12 this year? Not an indictment of the Cardinal, but coming off a tough loss at USC and turning around and going back further south won't be easy. The Aztecs under Rocky Long are no joke as evidenced of them going into Tempe and beating the Scum Devils by 10 last week.

 

I don't spend ticket money on "pointy ends" football (as The Godfather, Don Hatter Don calls it). I'll be kicking it at the homestead with some Four Roses Single Barrel and let the amateurs play pinball on the highways and byways around here. As much as I would like to see Louisville win, I don't think it's going to happen. Lamar's protection may or may not be marginally better than it was last season. And the Card defense is even more suspect than usual after the first two contests. Mr. Jackson might be able to keep them in it longer than they should be, but I don't see them preventing Clemson from outscoring them. If it does become a shootout, Louisville will win or lose on turnovers and/or special teams. If they don't cough it up, like they managed against to do against North Carolina, they've got a chance. If they revert to the loaf of bread act they showed vs. Purdue, it could get ugly. Lamar Jackson IS the best college football player in the country and, win or lose, he WILL put on a show. You can count on that.

 

Not buying the advertising hype of Texas @ USC as a big game, Joe? Yeah, me either. This really is a thin week.

Tennessee @ Florida - The Gators have to get the run game going to have a shot but they have qb and o-line problems, so first one to 20 probably wins this one. I'm hesitant to pick Florida to start 0-2, but I think the Vols win it.

LSU @ Miss St - The Bulldog qb Fitzpatrick is a gamer, but the LSU D is too much. Bayou Bengals win. And I hate those f'g cowbells.

Clemson @ Louisville - The Clemson D has been one of the best in the country the last couple of years and they're off to a great start this year. I expect them to try and force Jackson to throw from the pocket and then capitalize on the mistakes he usually makes (taking bad sacks, inaccuracy, turnovers). The Card D on the other hand stinks. Tigers win.

Upset - Purdue @ Mizzou (-7.5) - So Mizzou lights up MO St in a game where the teams combined for 115 pts, then gets thumped by SC as Locke throws 3 picks and they fire their DC...and 7 days later they're favored?!? Uh, no. I like the way the Boilers have looked early under Brohm and think they pull the "upset" here.

While I don't know if they can pull the straight upset, I like Illinois to cover the 17 at #22 S Fla tonight.

 

• Mateo, I guess I should've included SC v Texas in terms of competiveness and drama. Was at a boxing party with a bunch of Trojan fans there, so saw the beginning and the end of the game (double OT extravaganza). Sam Darnold must have incredible patience because his Wrs dropped passes (the pick 6 was comical) like nobody's business. Trojans' Natty hopes alive...barely.

• Tennessee..Um, drop the winning TD, Check. Not having the Hail Mary Defense in, Check. Blowing the game to your nemesis on a 65 yard pass as the time expired..Priceless.

• Clemson (from highlights and what I read) was simply too physical for Louisville.

• I'm never in Vegas when I hit the 'Upset Alerts'.

 

Darn, I was hoping you'd found a Grays Almanac. Great call on both picks. An Aggie friend of mine coaches OL in Cali, and he's a big fan of SDSU's OC Horton.

You could say Tennessee got a dose of karma from last year's Georgia game. I was kinda right, the first team to 20 did win, just not with 20 and not the team I picked. The Vol k missing 3 fg's didn't help matters.

Speaking of, LSU had 2 td's wiped out by penalties and lost 2 players to targeting (they were already missing 2 d-linemen to injury). Credit to the Belldogs though, they had a great game plan and executed it almost perfectly.

Joe, last year Clemson played their usual blitz heavy, man coverage defense. Jackson was too elusive and with the db's having their backs to the play, he went wild. Last night they mostly played contain with zone coverage. As a result, there was a bit of miscommunication with Jackson and his wr's on the reads and he had a lot of throws either over or behind their target. He got outside on some designed runs on the early scoring drive and caused all sorts of havoc, but after that Clemson set the edge and kept him in the pocket. When he did try to take off, they forced him back inside and gang tackled him. His final yds and td's will look respectable, but Clemson held him under 200 passing with 1 td and 1 int, under 50% comp% and about 65 rushing yds through 3 qtrs. He got around 120 yds and 2 td's against the 2's and 3's in garbage time.

The playbook on stopping Jackson is out and that's why he's lost 4 of his last 6 games. He shouldn't have won the Heisman last year (Watson, Mayfield) and won't win it this year. But he'll torch enough ACC defenses again this year to be in the conversation, especially if Darnold continues as he has so far this year (6 td/6 int). Sam has happy feet and is too careless with the football. Reminds me of Jameis Winston in that regard. He tries to rely too much on his arm and doesn't set his feet first if you get him off his first read.

Guessing that boxing party was GGG v Alvarez. No comment on the controversial result?

 

Clemson is still very good. They should repeat as National Champs. I'm still bullish on Lamar. He's talented enough, smart enough and improved enough to make enough adjustments to recover from this shellacking. Problem is, Bobby hasn't held up his end of the deal. Louisville is not as good as they were last season. The supporting cast is weaker in every phase of the game. Not only did Petrino NOT recruit enough talent to equal or surpass last season, he still focuses too much on the offense. Still hasn't figured out defense, and isn't smart enough, or able, to procure coaches that DO know that side of the ball. But hey, Louisville's a basketball school, right? Except it's a foregone conclusion that we're about to have the '13 National Championship AND the '12 Final Four vacated by the NCAA, rightfully so. Got a lot more issues than no help for Mr. Jackson this season.

 

Matt, yes it was the Canelo-Triple G bout, and thought GGG won it clearly. The judge that had Canelo lopsided was either paid under the table or drunk. It's boxing, so why have a normal decision when you can rip off the public for a rematch? The party was fun though.

Forgot to mention Mississippi State's dominant performance. One of the toughest things to do in any sport is replace a legend and that's what QB Nick Fitzgerald is doing following in Dak Prescott footsteps. Saw him play twice last year and didn't think much, but saw the first half and he ran the offense perfectly.

 

Dan Mullen can coach.

 

Easing into conference play;

#4 Penn State at Iowa @LaxAttack The Hawkeyes must win the turnover battle to have a chance. If they don't there are too many Nittany Lion skill players for them. Expecting Penn St to wear Iowa down (hope I'm wrong).

#1 Alabama at Vanderbilt. Vandy has been a surprise and coming off an upset win over KState. Bama is a different animal, but the Commodores will hang in for awhile before succumbing.

#17 Mississippi State at #11 Georgia. Going with the Bulldogs ...the ones playing at home. MSU is coming off an emotional win and it's tough to repeat the same effort the following week.

GAME of the WEEK:
#16 TCU at #6 Oklahoma State. OU Lite is looking to step out of Big Brother's shadow. The Toads are exceptionally coached and will be a tough out. Will go w/the Pokes at home and QB Mason Rudolph getting some national recognition.

Upset Alert
#7 Washington at Colorado. @dtowndough are you going? Dawgs embarrassed the Buffs in the PAC 12 Title game, but have been a little uneven so far. Boulder on a Saturday night and a chance for redemption are the ingredients for an upset.

#20 Florida at Kentucky. 30 game winning streak for the Gators in this series. It's got to end at some point, and this is the Cats best chance.

**wanted to include my Cats hosting #23 Utah tonight, but no need to jinx the kids. Arizona does matchup well against Utah for some reason. Since joining the PAC the Utes are 2-5 against my boys. Oh Shit, did I just jinx it anyways?

 

Penn State will win. I have nightmares of Barkley catching a couple passes and taking them long since our LB are too slow to cover him and we always start in a 4-3 base, even against spread teams.

Even if Iowa is lacking in general talent compared to their opponent, we have hung with teams throughout the years who have played the same smash mouth/in a phone booth style (i.e. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pre-Joe Moorhead Penn State) and generally struggle with teams that spread things out (i.e.. Ohio State, current Penn State) and let the athletes run wild.

But a night game in Kinnick is a fun place so hopefully it will be a fun game.

 

Late getting this in due to some connection issues on the road. Joe, we agree on most of these.

Penn St @ Iowa- I like Penn State, but Iowa should give them a game under the lights at home.

Alabama @ Vandy - I also like Bama, but I won't be surprised to see Vandy keep it tight for a half.

Miss St @ Georgia - Both defenses look good, though I'm a little skeptical of State b/c I wasn't impressed with LSU. Their game usually doesn't travel well either for some reason. I like Georgia.

TCU @ Okla St - I'll go with the Pokes, more consistent, more explosive. Their d is typical B12 bad, but they are good at forcing turnovers, something that plagues the Frogs with Hill at qb.

My Ags are in Jerry World vs Arky today. We've won all 5 since joining the SEC, but most of them have been very close. Consistency has been our problem this year. For the Hogs it's been bad o-line play (Allen has been hit on 42% of his pass attempts) and dire fg kicking. That doesn't bode well for them in a tight game.

Upset - So many games to like this week. I'll go with Texas Tech @ Houston (-6.5). Similar reasons to the Ok St/TCU game.

I also like Kentucky, Joe. Reagan was President and I was 14 the last time the Cats beat the Gators. A Kentucky win would be gnarly (in my best Spicoli voice).

NC St could be interesting with FSU trotting out a new qb for his first start and such a long layoff. I also think Purdue hosting the offensively challenged Wolverines is a candidate but I'm loathe to pick the same dog 2 weeks in a row.

Not a bad call on your Cats last night, they kept it closer than I thought they would.

 

Good calls on your upset picks Matt, only Kentucky blowing a 4th quarter 13 point lead kept you from going perfect. Sorry, I hadn't originally noticed A&M playing Arky in Dallas, but did watch from the time your guys got within 28-27 until the end. You have to be thrilled for the kids gutty out the W, but between the Hog receivers getting behind the DBs repeatedly, the terrible play call on a 2 pt conversion, and the inexplicable decision to not try and win it at the end of regulation it had to be aggravating. My brother's alma mater (U of Oregon) has made alternate jersey the norm, but what the hell was Arky doing wearing Ohio State unis?

Lax, Iowa played their hearts out and to lose on final play was brutal.

Didn't see the Vandy player look into the camera and say 'Alabama, you're next!' Otherwise would've said a blowout instead of a close win..59-0? Best to keep your mouth shut.

Most impressive team was TCU going into Stillwater and taking it to Oklahoma State for 4 quarters. If the Horned Frogs take care of business a November game in Norman looms.

Arizona doesn't treat the ball like a hand grenade (5 turnovers) they beat Utah by double digits.

 

They were Dallas Cowboys uniforms (the blue version) in Arky colors in honor of Jerrah Jones. That was a nerve wracking game, as it usually is. We got completely jobbed out of 4 pts early on, on a terrible phantom oob call. The time mgmt at the end was frustrating, but with a true FR qb I wasn't surprised. Getting the sure 3 pts was the critical thing.

Biggest takeaway from PSU/Iowa was Saquon Barkley. If he delivers against Michigan and tOSU, he'll be hard to beat for the Heisman.

Kentucky snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Florida is living some kind of charmed life right now. How KY makes that mistake in the final minute of BOTH halves to give up td's is inexplicable. Stoops needed to be sprinting to an official for a timeout. And all of his players need their peripheral vision checked out.

I got the to battle wrong on Okie Lite and TCU. Figured the Frogs would be the team with 4 to's, not the Pokes. You're right, sets up a big showdown with OU.

And just when I thought Arizona football was dead, Sparky knocks off the Ducks and your Cats gave Utah a run for their money.

It's been an interesting start to college football season. Looking forward to next week.

 

I wasn't even mad after that game. They played their asses off. Barkley is unreal.

My favorite comment I read yesterday by an Iowa fan was something like "best performance ever by a defense that gave up 500+ yards." I think PSU ran like 99 plays to Iowa's 48.

 

Starting w/a biggie up in Pullman;

#5 USC at #16 Washington State. Going to be crazy up on the Palouse. Wazzu has a puncher's chance w/Luke Falk running the Mad Professor Mike Leach's offense. USC will try to do what they did at Cal last week and wear them down physically. Going w/the Trojans, but won't be easy.

FUSA Special;
Maryland at Minnesota @HatterDon The Terps had 2 good Quarterbacks, but sadly they both are hurt and the once promising season looks murky. @encorespanish Golphers should win this one to stay unbeaten.

Indiana at #4 Penn State. @BarryWhite The Hoosiers road win at Virginia looks much better after the latter went up to Boise State and won convincingly. Will have to hope the Nittany Lions are flat after their last second win at Iowa. Going w/Penn State, but not w/out a scare.

Hot Seat Game
#7 Georgia at Tennessee; When are these coaches going to realize that only w/super success can you lecture or treat the media poorly (and get away w/it) ala Saban, Belichick, or Popovich. Butch Jones went off at the media and it just ratcheted up the pressure. Um, coach you blew the game to Florida and you just beat UMass 17-13, did you want a gold star and a lollipop? Dawgs will make it worse.

#24 Mississippi State at #13 Auburn. MSU got the reality check, now can they bounce back? Still have no idea about Auburn yet, but will say War Eagle at home.

Game of the Week
#2 Clemson at #12 Virginia Tech. It will be a fantastic atmosphere in Blacksburg. A talking point this year is how the big bad SEC is suffering from a lack of good young coaches and site Justin Fuente getting away to Va Tech as a prime example. Fuente has a very much underrated QB in Josh Jackson and the Hokies will give Clemson a tough game, but Dabo Sweeney is steering Clemson into Alabama territory where its stupid to pick against them.

Upsets Alert
#14 Miami at Duke; Another Friday night game, like the Dookies tonight.

#15 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech; The Pokes playoff hopes were put on life support, can they turn it around after such a big loss? Tech has actually played some defense, which hasn't occurred in a looooong time. That said this will be a shootout in Lubbock.

 

My Ags host South Carolina who have been good defensively but lost their explosive playmaker on offense. They've struggled without him so I'm hoping for a comfortable win.

Maryland @ Minnesota - I don't think any team has worse luck keeping qb's healthy than the Terps. They played a lb at qb a couple seasons ago b/c they had so many go down. The Gophers will row their boat thru a sea of turtle soup.

Indiana @ Penn St - the Hoosiers are giving up close to 200 yds/g on the ground. Bad news going up against Buckley. Penn St easily.

Georgia @ Tennessee - in recent seasons in the SEC East, this would be a game the Vols would win and UGA would lose. But this time the Vols have protection issues and that Dawg d looks legit. UGA wins.

Miss St @ Auburn - I still don't have a feel for either of these teams yet. The Belldogs are run heavy and the Tigers have been good against the run. Plus they're at home, so War Eagle.

Clemson @ Va Tech - Clemson's one weakness has been their qb's 2/3 td/int rate. Louisville was a big road game but their defense wasn't a test. This one could rattle the young qb and give the Hokies the win. But I'm with Joe, too hard to pick against Clemson right now. That rb Etienne is special.

Upset - USC (-4.5) @ Wazzu. Darnold's been very careless with the ball (7 int) and the Trojans come into this one without their LT. I also wouldn't be surprised to see SC go to the Palouse on a Friday night without their A game. Is all of that enough to negate the undeniable power of Coogin It? I'm betting yes this week. Of course, picking games in the P12 has been an Achilles heel for me.

 

I'm late, so i get to cheat.

I'll take Maryland. Great job for the Terps starting strong.

I'll take Penn St big!!!

Georgia will roll TN!!! - I'm on a roll right now.

Auburn - Every year I love national media jumping on State/Ole Miss bandwagons because of how tight they play LSU. Both schools love playing LSU and is usually their biggest game. I don't think Auburn is great, but I do think they win this game.

I'm a believer of Clemson. I realize they try to choke a game away every year, but I'm not giving them this one. I think Clemson wins this one close.

Upset - I like it Aggie. I'll take Wazzu too.

I would have never picked that upset actually and really don't see a big one this week. I'm just hoping the Buffs actually get the offense going and can beat UCLA.