College Football 2015-16

Joe, I don't think it's an indictment of the B12's brand of flag football. It's an indictment of their scheduling. Setting 5-4 Texas Tech aside, the B12's top 4 teams (Baylor, TCU, Okla, OK St) have ONE win collectively over an FBS team with a winning record. The Pokes beat 5-4 Central Michigan. That's it. Now sure, these teams have all yet to play each other, but today, the only thing you have to go on in judging them is the eye test...against teams with losing records. (All 4 of them beat Tech, btw).

 

My Ags host Auburn this week. The road team has won every game in this series, but I think we'll scrape by.

Time for the B12 to start canabilizing itself. Normally Baylor travelling to K State on a Thursday night would be a great spot to call an upset, especially with a FR QB making his 1st start. But K State has been terrible the last month or so. And so the wait for Baylor to play anyone goes on.

TCU @ Okie Lite - TCU has the better offense and the better qb in Boykin & r in Doctson. The Cowboys, quite frankly, should be sitting on 2 losses. They got the fluke fumbled punt snap win over Texas & were mysteriously gifted a 1st down on a late scoring drive v K St. Even Vegas likes the Frogs. Except TCU has struggled against everyone on the road & OK St has the better d. I'll regret trusting the Pokes here, but that's the pick.

FSU @ Clemson - The Tigers have been trying to get over the Noles hurdle for a couple of years now & kept coming up short. They breakthrough this time.

LSU @ Bama - Bama's front 7 is incredible & can neutralize Fournette. That leaves Harris to beat the Tide's ball hawking secondary & I don't like his chances. Bama in a close one.

Iowa @ Indiana - The Hoosiers got off to a good start, but have tailed off. The Hawkeye train rolls on.

Upsets -

Joe mentioned looking for unbeaten teams unlikely to continue & I like that Navy over Memphis pick. I like looking at turnover margins. Based on that I looked at Pitt (+8.5) & Arky (+10.5). Pitt's defense is underrated & they've done a really good job protecting the ball. Only problem is I'm not impressed with their wins, all of which have been close. So I'll go with...

Arkansas @ Ole Miss - The beauty of the Hog offense is that it eats clock & limits the number of chances the other team gets. They also protect the ball. The Pigs have turned Ole Miss over 8 times in their last 2 meetings & Chad Kelly comes into this game with 12 picks. Give me Arkansas in a tight one.

I initially liked U-Dub over My Cousin Vinny's favorie team (the Utes), but Vegas went & favored the Pups.

 

To put things into perspective, of the top nine stories on the local newspapers sports web page tonight, the first seven have to do with either Kentucky or Louisville men's basketball. Story 8 is about Mark Stoops assessment of UK football's most recent practice. Story 9, the last one, is about Louisville's recruit expected to visit this weekend. Kentucky will relieve some of the heat on Mark Richt's backside in Athens by losing to Georgia, whilst Louisville will most likely lose to Syracuse at home. The Hoosiers will lose big to Iowa. They can't defend a decent high school team right now.
But the basketball exhibitions have begun. Pre-season rankings have UK #2, IU #15, and U of L unranked.

 

Big shakeup this weekend, who are the teams that control their own destiny?:

Clemson: Okay they beat FSU, but they sure don't look like the #1 team to me. That said the rest of the schedule (even though North Carolina in the ACC title game won't be any pushover) bodes well for the Tigers to get into the Final 4.

Ohio State: Baylor gets grief for their schedule, the Buckeyes' is equally abysmal. However, they have the Michigan schools and Iowa still to play (Illinois next week might give them a game. The Buckeyes have that same look Florida State did last year).

Alabama: They win out and they're in. Dominant performance against an LSU team (in fairness LSU still thinks it's 1955 and the forward pass is something not to mess with). They do have to travel to Starkville next week.

Oklahoma State: No OK Lite this year so far Matt, they obviously were inspired to play for the city of Stillwater against TCU and host Baylor in two weeks, followed by the Sooners. First is a classic 'trap' game in Ames, so the Cowboys better take care of that business first.

Baylor: The Bears aren't Ohio State or Alabama (The Tide play Middle Tennessee, Louisiana-Monroe, and Charleston Southern, but never get criticized for it) where they can get away w/a crap non-conference schedule and not be penalized, Baylor's schedule is terrible and they hear about it. However, the meat of it is now upon them (both Oklahoma schools, TCU, and Texas), so let's see how it plays out.

** 3 teams that all but control their own destiny, but if things go badly could end up crying at #5:

Iowa: 3 very winnable games left (at Nebraska to end the regular season might be tricky), but even Lax will have to admit; yes the Big 10 is up, but the Hawkeyes haven't had to play the Michigan schools or Ohio State. That said, if they advance to and win the Big 10 title game, it would be very difficult for the committee to leave out an undefeated Hawkeye team.

Stanford: 2 huge conference games at home (Oregon who has been playing better and their arch rival Cal), before what would be an elimination game against Notre Dame, then the Pac 12 title game. I'd put them in the same category as Iowa, they win out and they will be knocking on the door, but if there are 3 undefeated teams and a 1 loss Bama squad, #5 looms.

Notre Dame: They win at Stanford (as long as the Cardinal keep winning themselves) Brian Kelly will be campaigning for the Irish. They are still college football royalty, would the committee really put Baylor in over ND??

Teams that will need plenty of help, but not out of the picture yet:

LSU; A one loss SEC team that wins that conference's title game always has a chance.
Florida; see LSU
Utah; The blowout loss to USC hurts, but finish 12-1 and teams above you lose? It's not inconceivable.
TCU: Not sure if there is a logical way back, but a scenario where Baylor beats Oklahoma State and the Frogs beat Baylor amongst other things are the minimum that has to happen.
Michigan State; they've been playing with fire and finally got burned in Lincoln. They win in Columbus and it won't matter who wins the Michigan-Ohio State game. Sparty would need Iowa to go unbeaten until the Big 10 title game, beat them and a then have a handful of other things also to occur.

 

We both nailed the upset picks although Arky @ Ole Miss did not go the way I thought it would for a Hog win. The Hog & Ladder play (more like improv) was insane.

Total carnage throughout college football this weekend. These last couple of weekends are going to be crazy & fun...for neutrals. Looked like Sparty got screwed, but when you live by the sword, you die by the sword & they'd scraped by a few too many times. I wasn't surprised by LSU & TCU falling.

The less said about my Ags the better. Our FR QB threw 3 picks, 2 in the end zone & it's looking like our OC will be out after the season.

Props to the Missouri players for their activism. Regardless of whether you agree with their stance or not, that took guts. If I'm the NCAA I might start getting a little nervous b/c players across the country should be realizing today just how much power they have.

 

This again?!?

Any reason why you left off Bama's game with Wisconsin? Or why you ignore Baylor's extra bye week they get by virtue of not playing a Conference CG but scheduling games through Championship weekend?

No one is saying OOC has to be full of good teams but schedule one Power 5 team, ffs. OU played Tenn. TCU played Minny. Baylor plays bad FBS teams & still plays an FCS team. I'm eagerly awaiting details of Dynamo's upcoming trip to Waco when Baylor schedules NC Central in a few years.

Oklahoma State is just as guilty as Baylor this year, btw. Played Central Mich, Central Ark & UTSA. At least they didn't schedule themselves an extra bye week.

 

Kentucky lost, Indiana lost, but Louisville WON! They may have found a quarterback that can run Petrino's offense in Lexington native Kyle Bolin. He's as inconsistent as all their other qb's, though, so we will see. Still, best they've looked all season.

 

Sorry, forgot Bama played Whiskey in week 1 at home, pretty cool that they are playing up in Madison next year That's really going to put a crimp into their normal 8 home game/4 away game schedule.

That lateral play by Arkansas might of been the craziest of all the crazy plays this year.

 

You aren't really trying to make the case that Baylor travelling up the road to play SMU in Dallas is in some way comparable to playing Whiskey at a neutral site, are you? Otherwise, they have the same number of home games.

Now if you want to argue 8 conf games vs 9 & giving credit when you have 5 conf road games every other year, that's fair. I get why the B12 went that route. I don't know why the Pac 12 did. But I'm all for giving them some credit for extra degree of difficulty so long as strength of schedule isn't wildly dissimilar.

 

No, I'm not excusing Baylor's poor non-conference schedule, my point was Bama & Ohio State (aka Gold Standard traditional powers) get away with having poor non-conference schedules while Baylor does not. I got no problem Baylor getting ripped for it. Besides I just enjoy taking shots at Bama because of Saban and their obnoxious fans. Whisky is a real opponent, but I'm guessing it's not home & home. Looked it up, and besides their 'neutral' site Georgia Dome recruiting games they've played 2 road games in 10 years (at Duke and at Penn State).

 

Because they both played an OOC game against a team from a Power 5 conf. Ohio St played VT on the road. The Bama/Wisc game was in Dallas, btw. I don't get your complaint about only playing 4-5 road games...that's very common. Unless you have a knucklehead AD like a certain desert school.

I lived in Pensacola for a couple years, which is essentially like living in AL with FL taxes. As a result I'm all too familiar with Bama fans & I don't care for them either. Bear Bryant never lost a game and he'd have won the Super Bowl with Saban's teams.

 

Bama hasn't played 5 road games in who knows how long (I stopped looking at 2005). I think we're arguing on the same side of the fence on this. I stand corrected, thought the Whisky game was in Tuscaloosa, but that's another recruiting game for Bama in Dallas with 70-75% of Jerry's World being Alabama fans. Yes, whoever is responsible for the schedule of a certain school in Arizona this year was a knucklehead.

 

The committee made a big statement in that both Notre Dame and Iowa have moved into the 'win and they're in' category. The playoffs have officially started and a team or two will be eliminated this weekend;

FUSA Specials:

#3 Ohio State at Illinois. Early game in Champaign (11 am local time which hurts the road team). The Illini could of packed it in before the season, but have had a respectable 5-4 year to this point. OSU will do enough to win again, but won't be surprising that this is tight game going into the 4th quarter.

Minnesota at #5 Iowa. How will the Hawkeyes handle the 'no-respect' label being ripped off and knowing that they won't need any help from anyone? The Gophers are a reflection of their retired coach, and will be in this game, but Iowa has found ways to win and it should continue on Saturday.

Games of the Week

#2 Alabama at #17 Mississippi State. Here's a shocker.. I'm pulling for the Cowbells. How is Dak Prescott not a frontrunner for the Heisman? For my money, he's the best college QB today. 18 TDs and 1 Int on the season for a team that isn't near as good as they were last year. I think Bama will grind the Bulldogs down and win a tight one. However, MSU is off their bye week, is at home, and with Prescott able to make plays with both his arm and feet, this game has upset alert written all over it.

#12 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor. I should of included OU in the 'win out and get some help' category, because the Sooners have only lost once and are a member of college football's Gold Standard Club. The problem I have with the Sooners is I've seen them once, and they looked terrible against Texas (so to be honest, I don't know enough about them). Should be plenty of points, and I will go with the home team.

Oregon at #7 Stanford. Much trickier than at first glance. The Ducks have really only bad performance all year to Utah. They lost a tight one at Sparty and in OT to resurgent Wazzu. Vernon Adams is finally healthy and Oregon has played Stanford better on the road than at home. All that said Stanford wraps up the Pac 12 North.

#21 Memphis at #24 Houston. The pressure of going undefeated is off Memphis and now would expect them to hand the Coogs their first loss of the season.

Upset Alert:

This is the time of the year where no result surprises me because of the pressure on the highly ranked teams, the lack thereof for the underdogs, and seniors playing their final home games.

#8 Oklahoma State at Iowa State; The Pokes off the huge win against TCU, the Cyclones were destroyed at OU by 38, no brainer right? Wrong, senior day for ISU, and they did shutout Texas their last home game, and OSU has to have one eye on Baylor next week no matter what the coaches have told them. If Iowa State can create a couple of turnovers early this game could be in the balance late.

FUSA Interests;

The 'Voice' of NC Central aka Dynamo looks to call the Eagles 6th straight win.

Evan's Coastal Carolina did lose a tight one to Charleston Southern, but are still ranked in the Top 5. The Chanticleers win out and they should be playoff bound.

 

First off, I disagree on "win and you're in" with Iowa & ND. I think the committee has shown this is more like a race and in this race, while Iowa is 5th, they've already hit top speed and are decelerating while others are just hitting 4th gear and are closing fast. The good news for Iowa is they'll get a boost from the B1G CG if they win out. But I won't be surprised if they get passed before then. Same with ND, but to a much lesser extent.

On to the picks...

Ohio St @ Illinois - The Buckeyes were showing marked improvement with JT Barrett at the helm. I think they roll this week with his return.

Minnesota @ Iowa - the Gophers have improved as the year has gone on but I imagine that emotion they carried after Kill stepped down will ebb as weeks go by. Hawkeyes win.

Alabama @ Miss State - Bama is 7-7 following LSU week in the last 14 years. All 7 wins...have come against the Bulldogs (vs just 1 of the L's). Dak is good but running is a big part of his game & I don't see it against that front 7. I don't see him beating the Tide through the air either, so while I expect a letdown from Saban's bunch, I still see a low scoring win.

Oklahoma @ Baylor - Briles' little Cubs have OWNED OU in recent years. The pts & yardage they've hung on the Sooners are staggering. But this Bears d is weaker than years past & struggled getting off the field against K St's run. It's only going to get worse this week with Perine & Mixon and a mobile Baker Mayfield. There are only 2 teams that rank in the top 15 in offensive & defensive efficiency, Clemson & OU. So I'm taking the Landthieves & hoping Chokelahoma doesn't show up.

Oregon @ Stanford - The Ducks have played alot better with a healthy Adams but that defense is still brutal. Stanford has been dominant at the Farm & I expect that to continue.

Memphis @ Houston - pretty much agree with everything Joe said. Cincy gave the Cougars fits last week in Houston & I think the Tigers derail them this week.

Upsets - Joe, Iowa State ruined the Cowboys perfect season in 2011 in Ames, so it's not a bad call. That game took place one day after OSU lost their women's hoops coach & an asst in a plane crash.

I like several this week. Rutgers (+9.5) @ Nebraska is tempting. Corn should be due for a letdown & the Knights get their best WR back against a Nebraska D that had allowed 8 passing td's in the last 2 weeks. Utah @ Arizona (+6.5) is tempting as well. Utah relies on turnovers & the Cats have been good at protecting the ball at home (terrible at it on the road). Joe's boys are also putting up 30 pts/game at home.

But I'm going to double up & go with the Hogs again this week. Arky is +8 @ LSU and shutout them out the week after LSU lost to Bama last year. This year's Hog offense is even better than last year's while I think the opposite is true of the Tigers.

 

Matt, if Baylor beats the Landthieves (love that nickname) they'll jump Iowa, but I just can't see Iowa not getting in at this point because that would include the Big 10 title game. One of the hidden gems about college football is these rankings cause debate, which is a very good thing.

Liked your call on the Hogs, my Wildcats on the other hand...Rumors are running rampant that RichRod is so mad at the Pac 12 (played 3 straight road night games for tv purposes which gets them back to Tucson at 2-3 AM, and we lost the bye week to fit USC's schedule) that he'd jump at the chance to go to Virginia Tech. My team is decimated on defense (27 different starters), and we blew Utah out in Salt Lake City last year so the Utes won't be looking ahead, Utah wins.

 

For Iowa, I think it could come down to something as simple as who makes the B1G CG. Beating an undefeated OSU vs a 1 loss OSU or MSU could be the difference. The reason I say that is you've got Notre Dame in the mix & the potential of an undefeated B12 champ. If Baylor or Ok St win out, I think they're in ahead of Iowa regardless. If Notre Dame wins out, that gets interesting.

Of course, a 2 loss SEC or P12 team is still a possibility as well & could make all of that moot.

 

I'm sorry, what was that Joe? 37-30?

Btw, you can call me the Hog Whisperer.

 

I'll gladly take that wrong pick , happy for the Arizona seniors.

Miss State looked great at the start, but when they came up empty-handed on multiple chances you knew they were toast. In order to beat Bama you got to get an early lead and force their average QB to make plays.

Saw about 3 plays of the Iowa State game, but one of them was them scoring a TD to put them up 21-7, and somehow despite every replay confirming the catch, the replay official overturned it. ISU settled for a FG and ended up losing by that difference, shocking how bad a call that was.

Pac 12 ended up doing exactly what was predicted before the season, only 1 poor team which equaled no team able to go unscathed and Stanford & Utah losing knocks the conference out.

Ohio State's best performance of the year, and Iowa does just enough to stay undefeated.

Saw the first quarter of OU-Baylor, dang that was a chippy affair! Sooners best regular season win for awhile.

Dynamo & Evan's team's keep rolling.

Special recognition to Missouri's Gary Pinkel who is resigning due to his health (lymphoma). He is the winningest coach at 2 schools (Mizzou and U of Toledo) which alone is remarkable. The Tigers were mediocre for decades before he showed, and when everyone thought they would be a doormat when the school switched to the SEC he guided them to 2 East Division titles. His leadership and the culture he developed in the locker room with Michael Sam (who told his teammates long before going public, and it was never leaked or was an issue) and just within the last few weeks by supported his players in their campus activism speaks very highly of the person besides him being a great coach.

 

Louisville won, Kentucky lost, Indiana lost. The Cards are now bowl eligible, which is all anyone around here cares about. They're easily the most improved of the local schools, although the Hoosiers would qualify if they had a defense. The Wildcats are hopeless. They'll probably beat Charlotte, only because they're worse than UK. Even though it's a rivalry game and they're at home, I don't expect them to beat Louisville. If they give Mark Stoops another season, I'll be surprised. And hoops season has started. All won their openers against cream puffs, UK is already 2-0.

 

Been swamped lately, but yes, Coastal lost their number 1 ranking and the conference title a few weeks ago to Charleston Southern. This was the second time in as many trips to Charleston where the Chanticleers were handed their first lost of the season. They've rebounded with two strong performances to grab a firm hold on number 4 in the rankings.

They travel up to Liberty tonight to close out the season. Barring a shock loss, they are pretty much guaranteed an at-large spot in the playoff. I'm not sure, but they may still actually be able to obtain one of the seeded spots in the playoff that comes with a first round bye. I would love for the school to grab a championship before they move up to FBS in 2017.