College Football 2013-14

Getting this post in early since there are two monster games on Thursday. Games of the Week:


#10 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor. A tragic story out this week about Baylor coach Art Briles who as a player at the U of Houston lost his parents and another relative in a car accident while they were on their way to his game. The Sooners have been turning into Georgia-West the last view years in big games. Only concern about Baylor is how are they going to respond in a close game since they've only had to play all 4 quarters once this season (at K-State). Will take the Bears at home.

#3 Oregon at #5 Stanford. Stanford has rebounded since losing and will try to pound the rock with Tyler Gaffney against the Ducks. Oregon lost this game 17-14 in OT due largely to their Kicker missing critical field goal attempts in regulation. Stanford QB Kevin Hogan has not having a great sophomore season, and will need to have his best game of the year. Oregon is getting healthy and will win going away.

#13 LSU at #1 Alabama. LSU does not have one of their vintage defenses, and will have to win both the turnover battle and probably score on special teams to pull off the upset. Until someone beats them, Bama deserves to be #1. However, they will be playing at home for the 6th time out of their last 7 (the one road game was at vaunted Kentucky :roll: ). The Tide's schedule doesn't compare to Oregon or Florida State. Just can't see this LSU team going into Tuscaloosa and winning.

**Upset Alert**

#19 UCLA at Arizona (for a certain Aggie who possibly can't root for a team from LA). I have made fun of the QB that plays for my Cats, but to his credit and to RIchRod's coaching Denker has gotten better and Arizona sits at 6-2. One thing Arizona does have is the nation's leading rusher in Kadeem Carrey. This will probably come down to the kickers, which makes me nervous.

 

Been away from this thread for a few weeks. I'd meant to post before getting out of town last week but ran out of time.

OU - Baylor. For the record, I hate Baylor. The B12 can be tough to get a read on b/c they backload their schedules. As a result, the KSt game is really the only barometer we have on Baylor and we just don't know how good they are or aren't. To beat Baylor, you have to get them past the first progression. OU has a good secondary, but I don't know that they can get enough pressure from the front 4 to do that enough. I'm also sketchy on OU's offense. While I wouldn't be surprised with either result, I think the vile little Bears win.

Oregon - Stanford. Agree with Joe. I think Stanford will bring the Ducks O down to earth a bit, but I don't think they have enough firepower of their own to beat them.

LSU - Alabama. If this game was at night, in Death Valley...maybe. But LSU has dropped 2 of 3 on the road (Ga, Miss). While Bama's schedule has been called into question, they've absolutely pounded teams. Arky and Tenn aren't worldbeaters, but they aren't terrible and Bama beat them 52-0 & 45-10. Interesting place to draw the line on the home schedule Joe. The other 2 games you didn't mention were a neutral site and a road game. By season end, they'll have played 7 home, 4 road, 1 neutral. That's not out of whack. Oregon & FSU both play 7 home games as well.

UCLA - Arizona. I rooted for the Kings in the Stanley Cup a couple years ago but I do tend to root against LA teams. I don't see the upset here. I think Arizona is too one-dimensional on offense and too untested with that garbage schedule of theirs. UCLA dropped 2 in a row to Oregon & Stanford, but have otherwise been more impressive. I think they have too much offense for the Cats and win by double digits.

Miss St - Texas A&M. For some reason, this is the national afternoon SEC game on CBS. Not sure why as it will be one way traffic. The Aggie D has kept good teams in games with us, and cost us a couple. But the Bulldogs aren't a good team and their defense is as bad as ours, or worse. We beat them at their place by 25 last year and this is likely to be worse.

Upset Special

Va Tech - Miami. Miami was horribly over-rated going into the FSU game b/c they were unbeaten. The Canes are coming off an embarrassing rout that was preceded by 2 come-from-behind wins over poor teams. Va Tech is coming off losses to Duke and BC. Someone has to turn it around. Seems like every time the Hokies hit a place where they look like they should be written off, they win a game like this.

Weighing in on the Tubs debate from earlier. Tech went into decline after he took over but have rebounded immediately after he left. Tuberville's football philosophies lean to the archaic and w/o the backing of a big school, I don't think he can put together the staff to overcome his deficiencies. Owing to their conference, he should be able to dumb his way into winning seasons and getting beat in low level bowls games at Cincy. But I don't see them winning their conference or continuing the success they've enjoyed recently. Throw in the unethical stuff and it's not a good hire. It's not a disaster either, but in a world where teams are fighting for places at the table, Tubs may cost Cincy a spot that they'd been on the fringe of attaining previously.

 

You simply can't put enough value on intelligence combined with toughness. Stanford played near flawless football for 3 quarters, then hung on. Oregon turned the ball over 3 times inside the 20, and their 'improved' defensive line was blown off the ball by Stanford. David Shaw is simply a better coach then the rookie guy at UO. As a Pac 12 homer it's painful to know that the conference will more than likely be on the outside watching some other conferences vie for the title, but Oregon's got no one to name but themselves.

Matt, first have missed your insights so glad to read them again. I intentionally drew a line on Alabama's schedule. Yes, they started the season with a 'neutral' site (in the south in a recruiting hot bed, with 60-65% of the crowd, and a down Va Tech) then had 2 weeks to prepare for the great game at College Station on Sept 14....It's Nov 9 mañana and they've left home ONCE in 2 months :shock: . The SEC is the best conference and I understand that w/2 divisions you can't play everyone, but they haven't played South Carolina in the regular season since 2010 :shock: , they haven't played Georgia in the regular season since 2008 :shock: :shock: They have played Georgia State twice, and Georgia Southern once during that time, think about that and try to defend it. Why are they only playing 8 conference games?? What other big conference does that? Everyone else plays 9, and rotates which teams they skip (never going 2 years in a row skipping the same team). I'm sorry, but as great as Bama is, their schedule is a joke.

Baylor rolls OUsued to be Great. Matt, had no idea you had disdain for poor little Baylor, but I'm guessing it's from growing up in the old SWC where all the Texas schools slugged it out.

 

The SEC, B1G and ACC all play 8 conference games in a season. The B12 didn't switch to 9 games until defections reduced their numbers to 10. I have no idea when the PAC switched. I seem to recall UW didn't play every team in the league when it was a 10 team league.

As for the SEC rotations. Prior to expanding to 14 teams, the breakdown was 5 games vs teams in your own division, 1 permanent cross-division rival, & 2 vs teams from the other division that rotated every 2 years. With 6 teams per division, yeah, you could go 4-5 years w/o playing someone. Due to rivalries, the B1G uses this same method. In the case of Alabama, the cross-division rival has been Tennessee. In recent times, their ascensions haven't been parallel, but that can happen with the rotational games as well. It happens with non-conference games too. Most are scheduled 5 yrs out, so who knows how good a team will be in a given year (VT in AL's case, Tenn in Ore's case this year). Since moving to 14 teams, scheduling has been a bit of a mess & the conference said from the outset that for 2 years, it would try to follow a format but would stray from it if it couldn't. As a result, the Ags have played 2 yrs in a row @ Ole Miss. We're supposedly looking at a move to 9 conf games for more balance (6 div, 1 rival, 2 rotational), but I haven't seen that confirmed. The argument for 8 games has been that the conference was so strong, coaches feared cannibalizing itself in the Nat'l rankings. I think that we're waiting for everyone else to adopt that scheduling before doing so. I also think we're waiting to see if the expansion fallout is done.

As for the non-conference scheduling, we've had this debate. Part of it is b/c the SEC plays conference games so early (usually have the first one in week 1 or 2, then a break) the teams are more limited in what opponents are available to play OOC in late Oct/early Nov. Part is that it's a guaranteed home date which means more $$. Part is that the SEC members feel their strength of schedule in conference is sufficient that they don't need the boost from OOC games. And part is that a loss to a good team is more costly than a win against a crap one under the BCS system. We can agree to disagree on this one but I'll point out once again that Zona doesn't exactly share your viewpoint. Fwiw, I don't agree with scheduling 1-AA teams except when you have no choice but to scramble to fill a date at the last minute. Conference musical chairs has caused this to happen with A&M several times now.

I won't get into the Baylor thing b/c it extends beyond sports and runs both political and religious. I wasn't overly surprised with the OU result (maybe a little bit by the margin) and I'm still not sure how good they are. The B12 is a real crapshoot this year. The absence of a Conference Championship game is going to hurt Baylor, imo.

I was surprised by Stanford. I won't be anymore and that's an indictment on Oregon. It has felt like we've been robbed of that elusive Bama v Oregon final in recent years, but perhaps we haven't. We've just seen it played out v Stanford each year instead.

I got ya on the upsets this week. I got the right ta-ta but the wrong ho-ho on UCLA/Arizona. Your Cats showed better than I thought they would. I'd love to say there was some statistical or analytical reason for picking VT over Miami, but it was just a gut feeling.

 

Thanks for info on SEC scheduling Matt, not going to convince me that Alabama playing Georgia State twice and Georgia once in past 5 years isn't a crock or for that matter the Tide being home for basically 2 straight months. Don't get me wrong I think Bama is the best team.

Games of the Week

#25 Georgia at #7 Auburn. Bulldog fans have to be thinking 'what if' about the season (as in 'what if we didn't botch the field goal at Clemson??, what if we didn't have the crazy number of injuries). Auburn has been on a roller coaster ride over last few years. They win the National Championship, have great recruiting classes, but fall apart to the point where the coach gets fired two seasons after winning said Natty. Gus Malzahn has come in and with the cupboard full has turned it around. The Tigers have only lost at LSU, and have won all their games that have been close. Auburn winning will set up an epic Iron Bowl, but will go with the Dawgs spoiling it.

#12 Oklahoma State at #24 Texas. What a turn around for Mack Brown, the obits were written, but UT has reeled off a 6 conference wins in a row. OSU has quietly been picking up steam. This is a close game, and hard to pick against the Longhorns at home, but will take the Cowboys..barely.

Upset Alert

#5 Stanford at USC. Pat Haden was spot on in firing Lane Kiffin mid-season. The black cloud has been lifted, and the kids are having fun and playing with passion again. While SC was hammered on scholarships they still have talent to hang with the Cardinal. Stanford did have a couple extra days to get their feet back on the ground after beating Oregon, so that should help in avoiding a let down. This is going to be a low scoring, tight game.

#23 Miami at Duke. Miami's slide continues against the surprising 7-2 Blue Devils.

**Invite the kid to New York even if he won't win the Heisman** Jordan Lynch of Northern Illinois lit it up again last night. He'll have to move to TE if he wants to play at the next level, but for the second year in a row the Huskies are on the verge of a BCS bowl game and Lynch is a dual threat monster.

 

There you go again, drawing your own lines. First, why Georgia? Did you look at the breakdown for other SEC East teams as well? And second, why 5 years? Sure, they've played 1 time in 5 years, but they played them the year prior as well, so that's 2 in 6. Throw in the SEC Title Game and you've got 3 in 6. Had expansion not taken place, they'd be scheduled to play the next 2 seasons as well (5 in 8). I don't know what the schedules look like for next season with 14 teams. They may not face Georgia.

Let's look at Arizona. Since the expansion to 12 teams, you've played Northern Arizona (2) as many times as you've played Stanford and Oregon and more than you've played Cal and Wazzu (1 each). And that's with a 9 game conference schedule. WTF Joe?!? We can agree to disagree, that's fine.

As for the games this week.

Georgia @ Auburn. This is a big rivalry for the 2 schools and is a BIG deal down in Auburn this week. Their seniors are the only players that have a win over Georgia. Auburn may only have one loss, but they were very fortunate to win at A&M. Had Manziel not gone out with an injury for a couple of series, Auburn doesn't win that game. Georgia got Gurley back and might have leading receiver Conley back as well. Tough call but at home, I think Auburn takes it.

Oklahoma State @ texas. OSU is a 3 pt favorite in Austin. Since losing to WV and struggling to beat KSU, the Pokes have returned to form. They have struggled running the ball though. The horns on the other hand started playing more physical and running the ball well and ran off a string of victories. They haven't looked as good in their last two though. Like you, I can see this going either way. I think it comes down to who can make plays late and since McCoy has done that of late, I think the sips pull the upset...barely.

Stanford @ USC. USC has picked it up of late, albeit against weaker teams in the PAC. Stanford is coming off a big, emotional win over Oregon. I think Stanford handles SC.

Miami @ Duke. Outside of VaTech, Duke's victim list is very underwhelming and they've lost to some average sides as well. You could say the same of Miami's wins, but coming off of losses against two good teams, I think they'll find the dropoff to Duke to their liking. Canes win.

2 other Upset Candidates

Washington @ UCLA. Washington does well when they can run and UCLA hasn't shown an ability to stop the run. The Pups haven't been as strong on the road and are 3 point dogs, but I like them to succeed where Zona fell just short and pull the upset as Bishop Sankey (sounds like a private school in the northeast) runs wild.

Michigan St @ Nebraska. Corn is a 5.5 pt dog at home but they have won the last 2 in this matchup. Both teams are coming off of victories over Meatchicken, but State has had a bye week. Neither team has what I'd call a good win & haven't seen many ranked opponents. I'll take Sparty due to the bye week, but I can see this one going either way.

No Aggies or Fulham this weekend. What the heck am I supposed to do?

 

Manziel missed third and goal and the next series (three and out). A total of four plays. True, if they scored a TD on third and goal, the game would have ended in a tie. But there is no guarantee that they would have won in OT.

Also if it was such a guarantee, how come Johnny couldn't produce any points with 1:19 to play and all three timeouts?

Texas A&M scored on seven of fourteen possessions. I think it'd be more appropriate to say that if Manziel had not gone out for one series, then A&M would have had a 50 percent chance of winning.

He'll still win the Heisman again, just not any games against teams from Alabama.

 

Simple answer: Yep, NCAA sort of did outlaw defense. Helmet to helmet gets you thrown out of the game. Means tackling at the line is pretty much arm tackles as are open field on the run tackles

 

HD, Fog is correct that rule changes have helped the offense side of the ball. A couple other factors that can't be ignored; the explosion of the "Spread" offenses in which schools like Oregon, Baylor play no huddle fast break football that have increased the number of plays ran by a team in a game exponentially. In order to stop all these high powered offenses the key is having defensive lines that can dominate, shut down the run, and put pressure on the QB without having to commit extra players. Simply put, not many schools have one great defensive lineman, let alone four. 48-41 was close to if not the exact score of the Alabama-A&M game and yes, it was a great football game. I came into the Auburn-Georgia game in the last 10 minutes, and even though it ended 43-38 on what they've already nicknamed the 'Immaculate Deflection" you would have enjoyed it. There are still lower scoring games, USC only scored 3 points in the second half, but they were the winning ones as they upset Stanford 20-17.

 

Prior to Manziel leaving with the injury, A&M had forced Auburn to punt on 5 of 6 possessions (they scored a td on the other). Meanwhile, A&M had 2 td drives and a fg in that span and was driving for another td when he went down. The backup comes in, can't complete a pass, and we settled for a fg. At the time of the injury, A&M had the momentum and the crowd was rocking. After the injury, the crowd noise died, the energy on defense seemed to disappear and Auburn started moving the ball almost at will. As for why the drive with 1:19 stalled, I dunno. Maybe b/c he couldn't hold a football until they shot him up? He still got us down to the 20 but then Auburn dialed up the pressure up front and Manziel did not look like himself.

I disagree that you can look at the game in aggregate and say what would have happened. College games are highly susceptible to swings. I don't think there's any question that the Manziel injury brought about a major swing at a critical juncture in the game. It's all irrelevant though, you can't play what if. My only point in bringing it up was that Auburn was likely more susceptible than their record indicated. Kudos to them for pulling out a win in one of the most entertaining and insane 4th quarters I've seen in a long time v Georgia. That may have been the only game I picked right last week. :doh:

Also, don't think he'll win the Heisman again unless we win out.

 

Some really good match ups;

*Invite him to New York for the Heisman ceremony update: Jordan Lynch at it again last night, 202 yards passing, 161 running, no turnovers and 3 tds as Northern Illinois is closing in on busting the BCS for the second year in a row.

#18 Wisconsin at #25 Minnesota. Put this one in because the story of Golpher coach Jerry Kill and his ongoing battle with epilepsy (he kept having seizures, some of which occurred on sidelines) and how it meshes w/a football coach's lifestyle is interesting. This article about him, and what he's gone through is worth the read, and even though WIsconsin should win the game, I hope Minnesota keeps their dream season going in this intense rivalry game.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... c-seizures

#12 Texas A&M at #21 LSU. Should be plenty of fireworks at Death Valley. I like the Aggies w/the extra week to prepare to ride Manziel's brilliance.

#17 Arizona State at #14 UCLA. Major implications in Pac 12 south as the Scum in control at the moment. This will be a great college game, and it's painful to say this..but Let's Go BRUINS!!!

#4 Baylor at #10 Oklahoma State. Baylor's National Championship hopes hang in the balance and this is a tall order in Stillwater. HD, if you are reading this, please give this one a few minutes, and give an assessment on if offensive football can entertain. Expect this one to be tight, and I'll go with the Cowboys to win it.

Upset Alert:
Scoured for this one and of course would love Arizona to shock Oregon, but the Cats will get rolled. Will go with a different bunch of Wildcats in Kansas State knocking off #20 Oklahoma at home. KState is improving and the Sooners keep going back and forth on a QB, which is nevr a good sign.

 

When it comes to Princeton and football, well ... they've been a good basketball school. They haven't been good in football very often. They did have the Heisman Trophy winner in 1951 (Dick Kazmaier). One of the recent times they were good was when Jason Garret was the quarterback. Yeah, the guy who coaches the Cowboys. They tied for first in 2006, their most recent good season. Preseason polls predicted a finish in the bottom half of the league this year.

So, it's surprising and exciting that they head into the season finale at Dartmouth tomorrow with a 6-0 league record and a chance to go undefeated in the Ivy League for only the second time since the league was formed in the mid-50s. They're ranked #19 in the championship subdivision polls. If they lose and Harvard beats Yale they would tie for first (go Bulldogs). Dartmouth is third in the league at 4-2, and the forecast is for snow and a high in the mid-30s in Hanover NH, so it's going to be a tough one. I assume it won't be on TV but I can get the campus radio station over the internet. Here's a ink with more info on the big game.

Go Tigers! I hope I'm not jinxing them. I'll leave you with our cheer for the defense (it IS the Ivy League after all):

HarASS them, harASS them, make them relinquish the ball !

 

What's with the Jordan Lynch push? There are so many legitimate candidates worthy of consideration, I don't get it. 40-76 (combined record of opponents). 3 (# of teams played with a winning record, 2 of which are fellow MAC teams). 0 (# of wins over ranked teams). To bust the BCS, they have to be the highest ranked non-AQ conference team and have a minimum ranking of 16. They have the latter but with only 1-10 W Michigan left on the schedule, keeping it might be difficult. I don't think they can catch an unbeaten Fresno either. Fresno hosts woeful New Mexico then finishes @ SJ St.

As for the games:

Wisconsin at Minnesota - I agree, the Gophers are a great story this year and would love to see them win. Both teams are good on the ground but struggle passing the ball. Wisconsin has a much better defense. Just don't see it happening for Minny.

Texas A&M at LSU - Looks like this is going to be played in a monsoon the way things are shaping up. LSU has the better d, but neither defense is good. A&M has the better offense. Chasing Johnny around in the rain doesn't sound like much fun. While I think it could go either way and this may well be a homer pick, I like A&M to win. Manziel never fails to show up big in the spotlight.

Arizona St at UCLA - Oddly the Sun Devils are favored to beat higher ranked UCLA, on the road no less. This looks like a very even matchup but Arizona St seems to have momentum and are playing better football (offensively at least) lately. Todd Graham is a douche, but I'll go with ASU.

Baylor at Oklahoma St - This is only Baylor's third game on the road this season. They barely got past KSt and rolled Kansas in the other two. They have a great offense and their defense has been good as well. And yet they still haven't played anyone that makes me say, okay, they're for real. Oklahoma St looked really good @ texas, is on a roll and I think their defense is good enough to give the Bears problems. At home, I think the paddle monkeys will spank the despicable little cubs and ruin their National Title "hopes".

Upset Pick:

Joe, KSt is a 4.5 pt favorite @ home, fwiw. While the Ags are a 5 pt dog and qualify as an upset pick, I think there's another one out there.

Missouri at Ole Miss - The Grove is a nasty place to go play, especially at night. A&M barely got out with a win 2 yrs in a row and the Rebs beat LSU there about a month ago. #8 Mizzou comes in as a 2.5 pt favorite and since the two teams matchup pretty evenly, I think Ole Miss knocks them off.

 

Matt, while he doesn't have a snowball chance in hell to win it, and would have to move to tight end to even think about making it at the next level, but I love seeing a great college player get invited to New York. Lynch is a monster and worthy, it also helps that as a high school senior my buddies and I went to Dekalb to stay w/one of the guys older brothers for a weekend and had a great time. So I do have a soft spot for NIU.

I only look at rankings when determining 'upsets', I never look up the spreads unless I'm in Vegas. I will say I'm shocked KState is a favorite and equally surprised the Aggies are that big a dog. Did think about that Ole Miss pick, and they seem to be heading in the right direction.

 

That's ironic. I started looking up spreads after I picked a lower ranked team to win last season and was told it wasn't an upset since they were the betting favorites.

I was waiting for you say Lynch was Mama SoCal's maiden name or some other claim to kinship.

 

well crap, had a long reply all typed out and hit the wrong button. so now for the shorter sweeter version.

Minnesota. i'm always a fan of the emotional pick. works well with gambling (joke).

LSU - would like this more if it were a night game and 98K fans would all be drunk. HOwever, they are just waking up at 2, so energy isn't the same in that stadium.

Az State

Baylor - BIG

Upset - CU over the Prophylactics. Since I'm going and it will be 30 at kick off. also, Southern MIss over Middle Ten St. it has to end sometime right?

 

Great stuff Sac, had no idea you went Princeton. We share the same football heritage at a predominately basketball school, of course the closest I've been to the Ivy League is the bleachers at Wrigley Field, good luck to the Tigers today!

Feeling your pain Dtown on hitting the wrong button, have fun up in Boulder, can't see the Buffs winning, but this is a trap game for SC (Stanford last week, UCLA next) throw in a special teams score and winning the turnover margin and it could be close.

 

Well, unfortunately, they couldn't finish it off. Down 21-0 early in the second quarter, Princeton scored two TDs before halftime and another one on the opening drive of the second half to tie the game. Regrettably that was about it, as they ended up losing 28-24. They still earned a tie for the Ivy title with Harvard. Great, and unexpectedly so, season.

My Princeton story was well received in the chat room, so I'll repeat it here. I had this math teacher who seemed kind of strange. (This was in the early 70s.) He was a great teacher; it was the only time I got an A in a course while a student there. That would have been the end of the story except that, 20+ years later, the movie A Beautiful Mind came out. I had a moment of 'Holy s**t, could it be?' Eventually I found a DVD that, in the extra footage, had a picture of Russell Crowe with the real John Nash and, sure enough, there was my old math teacher.