The Grim Outlook for Avoiding Relegation

Discussion in 'Fulham FC News and Notes' started by MicahMan, Jan 3, 2019.

  1. MicahMan

    MicahMan Administrator

    Mar 4, 2014
    With only 4 or 5 points currently separating Fulham from the relegation zone, it feels like with just a couple breaks Fulham could get out of relegation. However, when looking at point trends for this season and what would need to be done for the remaining games to stay up, things look grim.

    Points Needed for Safety
    In the past 10 years the average points for the top relegated team was 35 and the bottom safe team was 38. Based on projections from current form this season 37 points would see a team through to safety. So with those two data points, lets use 37 points as Fulham's goal for safety.

    Fulham currently has 14 points with 17 matches to go. To get to 37 points Fulham will need 23 points over the rest of the season - 1.35 points per match.

    Likelihood of Getting to Safety
    Earning 1.35 PPM over the remaining 17 matches will be a tall order for Fulham. To put this into context, over the past 17 matches the teams that had the closest PPM to 1.35 were Wolverhampton and Brighton (1.41 and 1.29 PPM respectively). That means that starting right now Fulham needs to play like a mid-table team.

    There are lots of ways to earn 23 points, but if Fulham were to keep the same ratio of wins to draws (3 to 5) going forward that would mean Fulham would close out the season with a 5W 8D 4L record. That's right, only four losses over the remaining matches and Fulham still has to play 5 of the top 6 teams! This also likely means that Fulham must figure out how to win on the road since Fulham only has 4 home matches left against teams in the bottom half of the table.

    Things have improved under Ranieri, but the PPM under his management is still an anemic 1 PPM. If Fulham had started the season with that PPM it might have been enough, but Fulham is already in a hole so they must get better now.

    Looking for the Bright Side
    Fulham has very little that is encouraging, but the home/away match ups are favorable going forward. The remaining top teams will all play Fulham at Craven Cottage, so that helps the likelihood of escaping from some of those matchups with points. Cardiff also has to go on the road to face many of the teams fighting to stay out of relegation, so hopefully they will drop points in those matchups against weaker competition. Beyond that, I'm not sure what find encouraging.

    In summary, staying in the Premier League is possible, but unlikely. Every loss from this point forward will put a significant dent in Fulham's hopes for avoiding relegation.
    nevzter and encorespanish like this.
  2. jumpkutz

    jumpkutz Well-Known Member

    Sep 24, 2011
    Louisville, KY
    MicahMan likes this.
  3. HatterDon

    HatterDon Moderator

    Mar 18, 2006
    Peoples Republic of South Texas
    Hope this'll appear on our front page!
    MicahMan likes this.
  4. timmyg

    timmyg Well-Known Member

    Nov 20, 2006
    What's also grim is our March schedule, and how crucially important January and February is in the lead-up.

    Jan & Feb Schedule:
    1/12 Burnley A
    1/20 Spurs H
    1/29 Brighton H
    2/2 Crystal Palace A
    2/9 United H
    2/22 West Ham A
    2/27 Southampton A

    Not awful, not great, but if we want to stay up we need to do well in this stretch. Because...

    3/2 Chelsea H
    3/9 Leicester A
    3/16 Liverpool H
    3/30 City H

    Uhhhh, it's very possible we get bagel'd in March. That is a brutal schedule.

    If things go awry, we may be well adrift by the Cardiff and Newcastle matches in April/May.
  5. MicahMan

    MicahMan Administrator

    Mar 4, 2014
    That schedule also gives us very little time to incorporate new players to take advantage of what may be the best opportunity to improve on results from the first half of the season. They'll have to make an impact immediately - think Mitrovic of 2018 and not Mitroglou of 2014.
    SoCalJoe likes this.
  6. nevzter

    nevzter Well-Known Member

    Mar 5, 2007
    A City by a Bay
    ...all of which will contribute to staying up being that much sweeter. COYW.

    (now I'm going to go cry in my pillow)
    encorespanish, SoCalJoe and HatterDon like this.
  7. SoCalJoe

    SoCalJoe Well-Known Member

    Sep 5, 2006
    Walnut, CA
    Tough to comment in a positive fashion given the Oldham loss, but a couple rays of sunshine:

    The final 3 matches are home to Cardiff & Newcastle, sandwiched w/a match at Wolves (who should be sitting safely mid-table).

    The last two seasons (34 & 35 points) were enough, so hoping it’s the same.

    While it looks bleak, win 2 matches in a row and it all changes.
    encorespanish likes this.
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