Felix, Tunnicliffe, Cole, and some Bundesliga history

I swear there's been more navel-gazing about these two fellas and our manager than there has been about True Detective.

 

Or, like with that show, how about we wait a little bit before the 10,000 word think pieces

 

reading the recount of stupefying decision after stupefying decision that has been made by the club just makes me want to shoot myself in the head. Not happy reading Monnieur Hatter :sad-roulette:

 

Managers like Jol and Meulensteen, who are more hands-on coaching types, set the training sessions up. If they're running a spa, the trainer can't very well run a boot camp.

I disagree that it's just an age thing. It's happening with too many players and other teams have older guys who can get through a 90 minute match. The mistakes and lack of defensive discipline late in games happen with such frequency, it can only be fatigue.

I'm not so bothered by the youth stuff. Magath only has 11 games to help save us from relegation. If he prefers experience over youth and thinks its easier to drill a smaller squad, I have no problem with that. Once this season is over, we'll see what direction we take with youth. Until then, I'm not concerned.

With Tunnicliffe and Cole, as Don said, it's common with a managerial change. Maybe Magath was making an example of them or sending a message. Maybe their attitudes weren't right after moving here for Rene, only to see him sacked. Maybe Mackintosh never really wanted to bring them in but felt it was needed to back Rene. Who knows. Do we know for certain that they are moving on this summer? If so, we still have good prospects at their respective positions already in house.

 

None of us are at Motspur, so we can't say with any certainty what is happening. I'm basing the "spa" bit on things I've heard or read. How much validity those things have is anyone's guess, but when I watch us play, I tend to think they are correct. I especially think that when I compare us to other teams I watch play. Plus, it fits with Jol's reputation. I'm not necessarily saying we aren't fit, per se. More that we don't work as hard and aren't drilled as hard in training, and our work rate is subpar. You might also argue how well our fitness regimes are suited to the style of play we face.

Reither's penalty v Liverpool. The way we sag on defense and don't close on the ball late in matches. Those are fatigue things. Meulensteen commented on the latter after a match. So it wasn't tactical. The players were instructed not to do it but it happened anyway. That tells me that we do have fatigue issues. But you're right, things like set pc defense, dm's not covering for advanced fb's, that's probably down to tactics and a lack of emphasis on defensive discipline.

I'd agree that the late goal problem seemed to become more prevalent last season. But our goals against have been headed in the wrong direction since Jol took over. Under Hughes, we had a gaa of 1.10. Under Jol, that went to 1.34 in 11/12 and 1.58 in 12/13. This year, we're sitting at 2.19. I'm sure the problem is a combination of age, tactics, work rate and fitness, as well as confidence and heart. But like I said, I watch other teams play and they too have 30+ yo players and don't fade as bad as we do late in matches.

Go back to that 1.10 season (2010/11), looking at our top 15 outfield players by minutes, we had an avg age of 29.33 with only 3 players under the age of 29. Two of them (Dembele and Sidwell) were 10th and 13th in minutes. Dempsey was 4th in minutes at age 27. Compare to this year's squad. Avg age for the top 15 outfield players by minutes is 29.87, with 4 players under the age of 29. The key difference between the 2 squads is that the 10/11 unit had more players closer to the mean (11 of 15 were 29-31). This year's team only has 5. So this team has more players over the age of 31 (6, although Karagounis barely edged Ruiz on minutes for the last spot) but also has young players featuring more prominently than the 10/11 side.

As for Mackintosh. From what I can glean from the various accounts out there, it was Khan who decided to pull the plug on Rene and that decision was made right around the replay of the Sheffield United match. Mackintosh was tasked with finding a replacement and came up with Magath. If that's accurate, then the decision to sack Rene came 3-4 days after signing Tunnicliffe and Cole.

 

You could supply those numbers as well, Lazy. I was going to tell you I'd do it for a couple of beers, but it piqued my curiosity enough that I did it anyway. You're familiar with the phrase be careful what you ask for? Warning: Statistical Inundation below.

Since we've been so poor after the half hour mark, I went ahead and took it a step further. I counted goals scored in the final 20', but since I was also counting goals in the final 10'+, I broke them out as separate. So you've got goals conceded from 70-80' and goals conceded from 80'+. I also counted late goals that we've scored the same way.
10/11
Goals conceded after 80' - 2
Goals conceded from 70'-80' - 7
Goals scored after 80' - 8
Goals scored from 70'-80' - 1
Total for/against in final 20' - 9/9
18% of our total goals for were scored in the final 20' vs 21% of our total goals against.

Breaking these down further, I've classed the goals as game winning, game tying, go ahead (put the scoring team in the lead but a later goal changed the outcome), equalizing (pulled the scoring team level but a later goal changed the outcome) and irrelevant. Irrelevant goals are those scored after the outcome was already determined.
After 80 conceded - 1 game tying and 1 go ahead.
From 70-80 conceded - 1 game winning, 2 go ahead, 1 equalizer, 3 irrelevant.
After 80 scored - 2 game winning, 5 game tying, 1 irrelevant.
From 70-80 scored - 1 game tying.

So, when we led or were tied at 80', we only dropped points once (-2 pts). The only other time we conceded in the final 10', we responded with our own late goal. You may remember that match. It was v United and after Brede gave up an 84' own goal, he answered by heading home from a corner 5 minutes later to re-tie the match and earn us a 2-2 draw. We only dropped pts twice (-4 pts) when going into the 70' in the lead or tied. On the other hand, we gained pts 6 times (+8 pts) when trailing or tied after 80'. The game tying goal we scored after 70' was in reply to one we'd conceded, so no pts were won or lost. Speaking of, what happened with the go ahead and equalizing goals conceded was pretty cool. We turned 3 potential late goal losses into draws by answering with our own late goals. Resilient. Net points difference from goals in the final 20 minutes plus stoppage, +2 pts. So we gave as good as we got and were better than our opponents at nicking points late.

2013/14
Goals conceded after 80' - 16
Goals conceded from 70'-80' - 9
Goals scored after 80' - 3
Goals scored from 70'-80' - 0
Total for/against after 70' - 3/25
11% of our total goals for have come in the final 20' vs 42% of our total goals against.

Breakdown
After 80 conceded - 5 game winning, 2 game tying, 1 go ahead, 8 irrelevant.
From 70-80 conceded - 2 game winning, 3 equalizing, 4 irrelevant.
After 80 scored - 2 game winning, 1 game tying.
From 70-80 scored - 0

When going into the 80' in the lead or tied, we've dropped pts 8 times (-16 pts). When going into the 70' with a lead or tied, we've dropped pts an additional 2 times (-2 pts). Conversely, when losing or tied after the 80', we've taken pts 3 times (+5 pts). We haven't scored a single goal from 70'-80'. There are 2 differences in this season. The first is on the equalizing goals. All 3 opponent equalizing goals were followed up by game winners. And those game winners were scored within 9, 11 and 5 minutes of the equalizer. We did answer the 1 opponent go ahead goal with one of our own to secure a draw (@ United). The other is the irrelevant goals. In 10/11, we gave up 3 and scored 1. We didn't allow teams to pile on and hurt our goal difference. This year, it's 12 against and 0 for. Net points difference from goals scored and conceded in the final 20' + stoppage, -13 pts. Bottom line, just as we all thought, we stink on ice after 70'. And when we get punched in the face, we usually go down and stay there...curled in the fetal position...crying.

Manager Breakdown 13/14
Jol - 7 goals conceded after 80'. 1 goal scored after 80'. Pts dropped 4 times, gained once, net pts dropped, -3.
Meulensteen - 8 goals conceded after 80'. 9 goals conceded from 70-80'. 2 goals scored after 80'. Pts dropped 5 times, pts gained 2 times, net pts dropped, -8.
Magath - 1 goal conceded after 80'. Pts dropped once, net pts dropped, -2.

In Summary
That's a 15 pt swing between the two seasons. If we had those 15 pts, we'd be sitting 10th in the table on 36 pts, 12 pts clear of the drop and just 3 pts behind Southampton for 9th. It's a 10 goal swing on irrelevant goals. If we had those, we'd be on -22 goal diff. That's still 2nd from bottom, but it's within sniffing distance of 2-4 teams. We survived our last relegation fight on goal difference alone. The team should feel sick if they find themselves in that spot this time.