Fox Hill Farm's Omaha Beach, owned by Rick Porter, trained by HOF'er Richard Mandella and ridden by Mike Smith, will be a prohibitive favorite when the post position draw occurs later this morning at Churchill Downs. Smith won the Triple Crown last year aboard Justify, but Porter and Mandella, longtime horse racing giants, have yet to win a Derby. Porter's come close over the years, having two seconds in Hard Spun in '07 and Eight Belles in '08. Mandella has had a tougher time figuring out the Derby. In six starters, his best finish is a 5th with Soul Of The Matter in '94. He's saddled 9 Breeders' Cup champions, including four in 2003. He's 68 and is overdue to win this race. It's supposed to rain Saturday, and Omaha Beach won his last Derby prep in Arkansas in the slop. The only variable now is the 20 horse stampede that is the Derby for the first 1/4 mile or so. If he makes it through that, he should win. Bob Baffert's got three horses in the field, Roadster, Game Winner and Improbable. One of those might give you some value for your betting dollar, but best I can tell, this is Omaha Beach's race to lose. The draw for post positions is at 11 a.m., Eastern, today. Post time Saturday is 6:50 p.m. Saturday. It's supposed to rain.