The first half of Fulham’s 2019-20 season has been the best first half since the 2000-2001 season when Fulham dominated the second tier on its way to a first place finish and automatic promotion. So despite Fulham’s current position outside of the top two feeling a little disappointing, it shouldn’t be forgotten that this has generally been a very good start.
Fulham has six more points at the halfway mark than in 2017-18 when Fulham went on a 23 game streak without a loss in the second half of the season to just miss out on automatic promotion by finally losing in the last game of the season. Fulham has two more points than the 2016-17 season when Fulham took the last playoff spot, five points in front of seventh place Leeds.
Based on that recent history Fulham at least has a good shot at making the playoffs for the third consecutive year in the Championship. You may remember from my posts in the 2017-18 season that typically 75 points is enough to get into the playoffs. Fulham is...
In the 2007-2008 season Fulham had their “Great Escape” to avoid relegation. Fulham closed out that campaign with three straight wins to finish even with Reading at 36 points and claim safety with a superior goal differential of -22 to -25.
There are a number of similarities between the two seasons:
New managers were brought in mid-season
The second half of both seasons started with Fulham in 19th place
After the New Year’s Day match 2008 Fulham had 15 points and 2019 Fulham had 14
The new year started with both teams 5 points from safety
Both seasons saw Fulham lose in their opening FA Cup pairing to a team from the fourth tier of English football
In 2007-2008 Fulham were 6 points from safety with just five matches left, but they managed to win four of those matches to close what had been an 8 point gap with Reading. Fulham’s explosive finish earned 1/3rd of its points for entire season.
During the Great Escape, Fulham was never more than 6 points from...
With only 4 or 5 points currently separating Fulham from the relegation zone, it feels like with just a couple breaks Fulham could get out of relegation. However, when looking at point trends for this season and what would need to be done for the remaining games to stay up, things look grim.
Points Needed for Safety
In the past 10 years the average points for the top relegated team was 35 and the bottom safe team was 38. Based on projections from current form this season 37 points would see a team through to safety. So with those two data points, lets use 37 points as Fulham's goal for safety.
Fulham currently has 14 points with 17 matches to go. To get to 37 points Fulham will need 23 points over the rest of the season - 1.35 points per match.
Likelihood of Getting to Safety
Earning 1.35 PPM over the remaining 17 matches will be a tall order for Fulham. To put this into context, over the past 17 matches the teams that had the closest PPM to 1.35 were Wolverhampton...