Short White Paper on current Iraq situation

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/08/anatomy-of-a-tribal-revolt/

This fairly optimistic article explains a lot of what has been and is going on in Iraq. This isnt the first time I've seen this; I read several mil-blogs in 04 and 05 that had US unit commanders expressing the same concepts. And frustration about not being able to hang around long enough to build complete trust.

The bottom line is that tribal culture trumps Islamic dogma and Iraqis DONT hate us; they respect us but they dont really TRUST us yet. And local tribal heads are more than willing to work with the US in order to establish and keep stability on their turf. Until everything is secure.. THEN they want us gone.

My opinion:
Add to that, al Sadr has -again- given up and told his crew.. or what part of it he still controls, some have overtly defected to either Iranian control or independent piracy... to stand down. The recent attack on fellow Shia pilgrims was the last straw.
Maliki called his bluff, al Sadr lost and now he's gonna have to crawl back into the Government's good graces.
From all I'm reading... thats a start but Maliki has a tough job ahead getting Sunni/Baathist support in some extent as well as soothing fundamental Shia {read al Sadr} feathers. Problem is there's no one else has a better chance to do it.

I still think we should have killed the sumbitch al Sadr years ago, but if he TRULY wants to keep SOME power he's gonna have to get back into line.

ALL of them, Sunni, Shia and Kurds know what we did to the Shia in the early nineties. The Kurds are thankful we didnt totally hang them out to dry, and forgave the gap that allowed Saddam to come in and wipe out the odd village.. they are practical, after all.
But we cut and ran on the Shia in the south, after promising we'd support them covertly, and we dare not do that again.. because the whole middle east is watching for that.