Relegation

AggieMatt, after losing to Citeh.

As painful as it is, I feel it's time to broach this subject.

Is there any reason at all to be optimistic about a reversal of form?

Does anybody besides me think we're in deep do-do right now?

Would MAF sack Herr Jol if things worsen?

Are there currently enough reasons to be optimistic about staying up?

I hate to be a Debbie Downer, and I know there's a lot of football left, but I'm not confident about our chances of being in the PL at season's end....just sayin.'

 

I am withholding commentary until the end of the transfer window. Until the window shuts there is no way for me to make and educated guess about the stretch run.

 

Fulham has always been very secretive about transfers and, if my memory is not totally gone, I believe we often wait until the last minute to make our moves. We need a good midfielder. If we can fill that need, I think we will be fine. So I'm in Barry's camp, I'm not going to worry until the window closes. Also, while we are 6 points from the drop zone, we are only four points from the top half.

That said, I really am starting to have serious doubts about Jol. There is so much evidence that he cant get along with the players (Zamora, Etuhu tweet, Dempsey, Riise, Kasami, players not signing new contracts, etc). I have to wonder if this is the root of the problem, and will always be. I will take DiMatteo. Is he still available?

 

Mo, I have to agree with you. I haven't been as diligent in my following the first half of the year, but it's clear that players are not happy on the pitch. From the little I've seen, it just seems they don't have that "team" mentality. It looks like it's all work and no fun. I realize they are professionals, but when you take the fun out of sport, you're left with talent that can't close the deal. I'm hoping something happens to turn it around, but I just don't see it yet.

 

Hell yes, Fulham need to keep relegation in focus with or without transfers. There is a disturbing trend developing...

Being in the $hit and climbing out, is something I'm used to seeing Fulham achieve. Being in the top half and sliding into the drop is a kind of new thrill...yee haw.

I've seen stranger things than a manager in Jol's position get the sack. Query, who's out there that's better? Mark Hughes? :shock:

 

I'm just not sure we'll be able to improve our lot in life enough via transfers, at least not in this window.

The fact is we haven't begun to compensate quality-wise for the departures of Dempsey, Dembele, Murphy, Zamora, Sa, Salcido and Pogrebnyak.
Maybe some of them were done anyway, or just hurt too much, but I'd take all of 'em back if they were healthy.

There definitely appears to be a disconnect between Jol and the players. Only they know how pervasive it is, but it's obviously there. Judging from the effort and the results, it's probably pretty bad. The only question is, is it beyond the point of rehabilitation, or is the die cast?

As far as potential replacements should Jol leave, remember Billy Martin and George Steinbrenner? Never say never, and the possibility of Mark Hughes returning is not as far fetched as it may seem. Not very likely, I'll admit, but there are always people waiting in the wings to step in. Bruce Arena's on a roll. Roberto Martinez can't keep performing miracles indefinitely. Nor can David Moyes. Unless HD's tea leaves are true, and MAF IS prepping the club for sale, our job should be attractive to a number of quality skippers, especially if the Riverside expansion does get off the ground. Hell,even DiMatteo should be in play.

The next 4-6 weeks are gonna be very interesting in and around Motspur and Stevenage Rd.

 

Firstly, one of those three teams is now only 5 pts back.

Agree with Barry & Mo, there are just too many unknowns at the moment to say. As we stand right now, I'm concerned. The next 4 games will be telling. 3 are at home (WHam, ManU, Stoke) and we have Norwich away. If we can turn our form around and get what should (normally) be attainable points from most of those matches, we should be ok. If we don't, the schedule gets really rough, really quick.

As for Jol, we don't need a better manager, we need a better fit. That said, I've stated before that I don't think Jol is a good manager. He's one-dimensional. If you give him the quality to execute that one dimesion, he's been successful. If you don't, well, you've watched us this year, right? I agree that his seemingly poor man-management skills may make it a bridge too far, even with a good transfer window.

If you think relegation this season is scary, take a look at what we're facing in the next 2 years. I'll post my concerns over in the Future of FFC thread later, in lieu of hijacking this one.

 

Could be worse. We could be Villa.

 

Out of topic though, but Villa are missing their captain Stilian Petrov and he will never return to the game.

 

Kinda like how Fulham lost their captain in Murphy and haven't found a like replacement since.

 

Call me crazy, but I'm not worried. We've still got our share of winnable matches (Home vs. Spam, QPR and Reading- Away to Villa, Newcastle and Norwich) and a few days of transfer window left. For better or worse, all we have left to focus on is the league as well. No team in at least the last 10 years has been relegated with 40 points (yeah, I got bored of looking through old tables and stopped at this point). This means we need 15 points from our last 15 matches. We can do it... check back with me in late March and if we're still in this form, then I'll be worried...

~ Steve

~ Steve

 

OK. Worst case scenario. Given our current form, and today's underwhelming performance at home against relegated Reading, what has to happen? I don't know whether we're truly "safe" or not, but I know our next two opponents have more talent than us, and should be favored.

 

For Wigan to overtake Fulham at a minimum they have to win 2 of their final three and everyone else needs one win with Sunderland having to best us on goal differential.

 

Squeaky bum time for sure. Nothing like a good relegation threat to keep things interesting

 

Midweek matches of importance

There are three weekday matches that should pique Fulham fans interest. First up is the Monday wrap up of last week’s matches between Sunderland and Stoke City. As much as it pains me to say so I will be rooting for Stoke to tonk Sunderland large in this match even if I find the outcome unlikely. Keeping the Black Cats three points below Fulham and increasing the goal differential is more favorable to Fulham since both teams finish the season with Southampton and Spurs and Stoke already sit even with Fulham on points and ahead on goal difference.

Come Tuesday Swansea travel to Wigan with a chance to secure their own Premier League survival with any result from the match. Fulham fans, like many other clubs who are caught in the collective relegation mire, will be Swans fans for the day rooting for a Swans victory. Wigan has begun their last minute, breath-taking, relegation-defying escape act again this season and this time around it is not so fun to watch wit Fulham still mathematically in the mixer. Two wins would almost certainly see Wigan safe and both this match and the season ending match against Villa look very winnable from a Wigan perspective.

Come Wednesday Chelsea will host Tottenham in a match that will certainly affect the Champion’s League places. I for one will be pulling for a Spurs victory. Why? Well, other than the fact that I like watching Chelsea lose it is mostly because I want Chelsea to have everything to play for when they face Villa in their following match. As much as it might pain me it may be necessary to pull for Chelsea to beat Villa because I really want it to be mathematically impossible for both Villa and Wigan to crest 40 points on the final weekend. Selfish I know but I’ll live with it.

 

Fulham had the rub of the green when it came to results for a long stretch through March and April. Now, when it's desperation time, those fighting it out have picked up vital points. It's as though we are that track and field runner near the end of the 1500 and realizing that we are out of the medals quits one step short of the finish line while everyone behind is still trying and passing us at the last second. Sunderland will win today, and Wigan tomorrow, and then it's squeaky bum time.

Speaking of relegation, take a look at the league below and Wolves have dropped again. From hosting Man. United to Crawley Town in 2 years :shock:

 

surely we're safe this year, but will there be enough done over the summer to prevent a the end coming in 2014? I should probably start looking into visiting the cottage in the next year to guarantee I see them at the top level.

 

I think the simple math says a Wigan loss to either Swansea or Arsenal plus a Villa loss to Chelsea equals Fulham safety. I am sure there are other possibilities mixed in and I am not excluding Fulham adding a couple more points but there you go.

 

It's fortunate that Villa and Wigan still need to play each other (likewise Sunderland-Southamption), which takes points off the board for teams below us. But my goodness, I can't even believe we're having to look at such matchups at this point.