Relegation and Promotion '13-'14

Couldn't find either subject topic broached for this season (probably out of fear), and rightfully so. So now that the inevitable has all but come to pass, we might as well get it off our chest.

Who's coming with us to the Championship?
I'll say Palace and West Brom

Who's coming up to the Prem next season?
My guesses:
Leicester City and Burnley look good bets.
The last one? I'll go with Nottingham Forest, although they currently sit 6th, 6 points behind Derby for the last spot.
Oh wait, there's some sort of playoff for that, isn't there? And QPHa is still in the mix.

Damn.

The hits just keep on coming, don't they?

 

Cardiff and West Brom. Think Norwich and West Brom will go down to the wire.

Coming up, I have little clue. I haven't seen much of the Championship this season. Leicester look to be a lock. The other automatic spot looks to be between Derby, Burnley and QPR. I'll go with Burnley b/c they are in the best form at the moment, have the best goal diff and best defensive record out of that group. The playoff spot is always a crapshoot. Wigan are closing fast and appear to be in the best form. I really think it comes down to who goes into the playoffs hot and with 13 matches to go, it's too early to call.

 

So, after their surprise victory over Citeh today at the Etihad, if Wigan somehow manage to repeat as FA Cup champions WITHOUT qualifying for promotion from their finish in the Championship, shouldn't they get promoted by virtue of pulling off miracles two seasons in a row? Impossible to arrange, I know, but I'm just wondering.

 

Wigan would have 2 cups for their efforts, plus the days out at Wembley and the memories. I think that's sufficient reward. That's 2 more than we have.

The thing with Norwich is they have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches (4 from their last 8). Seems every time they get in trouble in the table, they pull another one out. I think that's what will keep them up over WBA.

 

I thought Sunderland had turned the corner, but they are back to their stumbling ways. Will say that Cardiff and the Black Cats will join us.

Hadn't looked at the Championship table in awhile, but Leicester looks to be a lock and Burnley has a nice lead for the second automatic spot. Wigan has 2 games in hand, so they should be in the playoff hunt. Kind of ironic they are making another FA Cup run since it was their title run last season that while glorious for their supporters was detrimental to the Latics relegation fight. Will their defense of the Cup hurt them again? As stated the playoffs are a total crapshoot and it's not uncommon for the 6th seed to get promoted.

 

The primary reason I picked Palace is the fact that they've only scored nineteen bloody goals. NINETEEN GOALS! We've scored 29, and we're awful! Then I started looking at other teams above us. We've outscored several of them by substantial margins. But nobody is in the same zip code with us in goals allowed. We're FIFTEEN ahead (behind?) the Bluebirds, the team we just lost to 3-1. The first order of business at season's end HAS to be to shore up the defense. No surprise to any of us that's the culprit. Name the sport and, almost without exception, championship caliber performance starts with great defense. It covers a multitude of sins. And in a relatively low scoring game like this, it will nick you a result more often than not.

 

Congrats to these folks and their supporters. 10 years since they've been up.
http://m.bbc.com/sport/football/26906091

 

Norwich are in deep doo-doo if they don't beat, or at least draw, us next weekend. When I said I thought they'd be safe a month ago, I was figuring they'd take more than 4 pts off of Villa, Stoke, Soton, Sunderland, Swans and WBA.

I said in the chat room, it's hard to imagine Swansea going down, but they look a lot like us last year...dangerously and (seemingly) unnecessarily flirting with the drop zone. Their goal difference is only -4, you'd think they'd have a better haul of the points.

Still think the bottom 3 today will be the bottom 3 at season's end. A lot will depend on next weeks fixture at the Cottage. We have to win it though. I'm afraid a draw likely means our best bet would be a tie with Norwich which we'd lose on goal diff.

 

Sunderland was thrashed at Spurs 5-1 and looked absolutely lifeless. Everyone wants a deep Cup run, but getting to the FInal of the League Cup and Quarters of the FA Cup look like they have taken their toll. Jozy's nightmare season just gets worse, not even worthy of a spot on the bench.

 

Burnley punches their ticket, they were a gritty bunch the one season they were up. Derby and QPR are certain for the playoffs, while Wigan looks in good shape. The fight for the final playoff spot is going to go down to the final match.

 

A look at the remaining fixtures of the clubs in the relegation fight. Will assume that the teams currently at 37 pts.- Wet Spam, 36 pts. - Hull & Swansea are safe (not entirely, but to shorten this post let's say they are);

35 pts. Aston Villa. Been in a free fall for a month, but that blatant handball that wasn't called late in the match that would have given a pk to Southampton in that 0-0 snoozer might be the break the Villians needed to survive.
Away to Swansea
Home to Hull
Away to Citeh
Away tp Spurs
Certainly capable of getting the one need they need this weekend, but a loss to the Swans and that Hull match will be like a Cup final given their last 2 matches. Prediciton: 39 points - SAFE

33 pts. WBA. Hard team to get a grasp on, but a favorable home schedule
Home to Spam
Away to Arsenal
Away to Sunderland
Home to Stoke
Beat the Cheats and the pressure is relieved a little bit (especially with Stoke on the final day). Lose or draw this week and that makeup game against Sunderland will be enormous. Prediction: 38 points - SAFE

32 pts. - Norwich. The schedule maker isn't welcomed anywhere within city limits
Away to ManUre
Away to Chelski
Home to Arsenal
Put up a helluva fight against Liverpool and unlucky not to gain a point. Considering the Gooners will probably need to win the last match for the CL spot, the Canaries are in big trouble. Moyes getting sacked couldn't make Norwich fans happy. Prediciton: 33 points - DROPPED

30 pts. - Cardiff. They've put up a fight, but they've only won 2 away matches all season, so it's hard to see them turning that around.
Away to Sunderland
Away to Newcastle
Home to Chelsea
Prediction: 32 points - DROPPED

30 pts. - Fulham
Home to Hull
Away to Stoke
Home to Palace
Have to win Saturday otherwise it's curtains, sadly my Prediction: 34 points - DROPPED

29 pts. - Sunderland
Home to Cardiff
Away to ManU
Home to WBA
Home to Swansea
Team Sybill, I hope that the team that stunk it up returns, but those last 2 results will sadly be the push they need to make their great escape.
Prediction: 37 points - SAFE

 

Thanks Joe. This is the first one of these I've seen that didn't have "I don't see (other relegation team) getting more than 3 pts" or "I wouldn't be surprised if (other relegation team) doesn't pick up another point". You'd think people have never seen the Premier League. Every year, there are shock results down the stretch as the minnows fight to avoid the drop.

My general rule is give the teams in the mix half of the available points remaining and you should have a good idea of what you most likely need. Figure 2 for each home game and 1 for each away game. Obviously that's far from an exact science and it ignores matchups. As a result, the points won't necessarily line up to the right teams (for example, I expect Cardiff to finish ahead of Norwich), but the totals should cover for the shock results. Using that method you'd get:
Cardiff 34
Norwich 36
Sunderland 36
WBA 39
Villa 40
So we'd need 37 pts minimum for safety.

Now, that said, our goal diff hurts us, Sunderland have a favorable run in and should be confident following results at City and Chelsea and I really don't like the way we match up against Palace. Like you, I think Sunderland beat us out for 17th and probably on the last weekend.

 

Great analysis and thank you for it.

Interesting article on Palace, who have achieved safety much to my amazement. Tony "effin'" Pulis.

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blo ... e-survival