Promotion and Relegation, Circa 2017

I think it's safe to say we won't be seeing Rotherham next season, unless it's in cup play. Wigan's probably going down as well. Blackburn, however, are 1 point behind Burton Albion, Nottingham Forest and Bristol City. Could be quite a tussle amongst those four to avoid the drop. Sunderland's 7 points behind Swansea City, Middlesbrough 5, Hull City 3. But the Tigers have a -32 goal difference. Yikes. Paul Clement has guided Swans out of the bottom three after replacing Bob Bradley. He'll have a job keeping them there. Don't think David Moyes will be able to save the Black Cats from the drop. Boro haven't improved much since saking Aitor. Looks like Palace and Swans will be dueling Hull for safety. Sheffield United and Bolton appear to be safe bets
to join the Championship. Right now Fleetwood Town, Scunthorpe United, Bradford City and Southend United comprise the playoff positions. Millwall are 3 points behind Southend, Rochdale and Bristol 4. But we, of course, are hoping for promotion as well!

 

Optimistic ways of looking at our playoff chances:

• If teams have the same record over the last 8 as they did over the previous 8 we pass Wednesday and get the playoff spot
• If teams have the same results against the remaining 8 teams as they did earlier in the season we end up tied at 76 points with Wednesday but likely make the playoffs due to our better goal differential (if it did turn out this way it would be a heart attack finish with Wednesday getting a 6 point advantage with three games to play, but ending all even on points)
  
• Wednesday and Fulham will play only one team currently above them on the table. That means we should get similar results to make the last match off the season a mini-playoff

Pessimistic ways of looking at our playoff chances:

• Reading has an incredibly easy schedule for the remainder of the season playing all 5 teams at the bottom of the table, Leeds is effectively out of reach, so our only realistic hope is to get more points than Wednesday over the last 8. If Wednesday plays well there are no other options. Plus, Wednesday is strong at home so getting 3 points in the last match will be tough
  
• Wednesday has had the 6th spot since December and have just had their worst run of 8 games this season. We had our best run of 8 games, yet we still couldn't catch them. Wednesday isn't likely to get worse and we aren't likely to get better so they will likely finish ahead of us

My prediction for what will actually happen? We'll be 2 points behind Wednesday on the last game of the season. We'll have a lead in that match and the last playoff spot until a late goal seals a playoff-clinching draw for Wednesday. That feels properly Fulhamish.

If we do somehow get into the playoffs, with Newcastle and Brighton and Hove effectively wrapping up automatic promotion, we'll face either Huddersfield or Leeds, but even Reading has a shot at the second spot given their easy schedule. Our biggest victories of the season were both 5-0 wins at home vs Huddersfield and Reading. We later had a close loss vs Reading and we still have to play Huddersfield again. Huddersfield had been on a hot streak but have cooled a little. We've gotten two draws vs. Leeds.

Bottom line is that we can get results against any of the teams we are likely to face. If we can just make the playoffs, anything is possible.

 

Sunderland not only lost at Hull today, they were shut out, despite having newly restored England national striker Jermaine Defoe leading the line. They're not dead yet, but the fat lady's humming scales. Wigan lost at Newcastle and Blackburn lost at Brighton.
And since Wednesday drew at Barnsley, FULHAM ARE A POINT INTO SIXTH PLACE!

 

Rotherham's loss to Fulham also made them the first English football team to be assured of relegation. This just makes it official. When you have half as many points as the next team above you, the writing was on the wall for a while.

 

You said it HD, Fat Sam's teams generally are as entertaining as root canal, but they DON'T get relegated. That simple fact will always keep him employed.

What has happened to David Moyes??? Once given the keys to the Kingdom, and now looking like someone who needs to be put out of his misery.

 

Based on an initial look at the remaining seven matches Fulham has the most difficult schedule of any of the playoff chasing teams. Here's the average position for the remaining teams:

• Fulham: 9.9
• Preston: 11.3
  
• Wednesday: 12.4
• Huddersfield: 12.4
• Leeds: 12.6
  
• Reading: 18.2

However, if we instead look at the rank based on form from the past 8 matches we get a more encouraging view:

• Fulham: 12.3
• Preston: Preston 13.1
  
• Wednesday: 12.0
• Huddersfield: 14
• Leeds: 11.2
• Reading: 15.9

Looking at it this way our level of difficulty is nearly the same as Wednesday's remaining schedule. Hopefully Wednesday continues to struggle and we continue our form because I'd really like to have a three point margin on Wednesday by the last weekend to make that game irrelevant. Wednesday will get Forestieri back tomorrow, but they are still dealing with injuries to other key players.

Fulham hasn't looked particularly strong since that amazing night at Newcastle. Rotherham was as easy as it gets and that was just a scrappy win. Getting a playoff spot still won't be easy, but despite blowing some recent opportunities we're still in a good position with seven to go. As long as we don't play like we did in September, we should find ourselves with a shot at the Premier League in May.

 

Rotherham relegated, Sheffield United promoted to Championship and Doncaster to League 1.

 

At the other end of the Championship table I hadn't realized Nottingham Forest was in such a free fall. As it stands they are only a point ahead of Blackburn in the last safe spot.
• Wigan barring a 'great escape' look to be heading to League 1.
• The dumbest move all season was Birmingham City sacking Rowett for Zola, and now they are getting dragged into the relegation fight. @MicahMan, the stat you gave on the AV match thread where Birmingham has only won 2 of their last 11 (now 12) and they were both against Fulham was a head shaker. They lost to Burton Albion (LVC went the 90, Cauley unused) and they are now in 20th only 3 points ahead of Blackburn themselves.

EDIT: Congrats to Brighton for earning promotion to the top flight for the first time in 34 years.

 

Joe, the stat is slightly different than that. Birmingham has had 11 wins all season, 2 against Fulham. Fulham is the only team they have two wins against this season.

Here's another head shaking way to look at it: Birmingham has won only 2 games since Christmas and one of them was Fulham (the other was Wolverhampton)

 

As Joe mentioned, Brighton earned promotion today to the Premiership. Also today, Chesterfield were relegated from League One to Two, while Plymouth and Portsmouth earned promotion from Two to One.

 

Leyton Orient relegated from the Football League to the National League, the fifth tier of English football, ending a 112 year run in the EFL.

 

And I find that terribly sad. I was also hoping Cambridge would get into a playoff position. Was fortunate enough to live there for a year in my younger days.

Cheers,

Steve

 

And the inevitable. Newcastle United promoted to the Premier League. Which simply means that we'll get at least two more chances next season to KICK THEIR BUTTS LIKE WE DID THIS SEASON!

 

Sunderland relegated from the Premeiership after a 10 year run. Wigan relegated from the Championship. This is their second demotion to League One since relagation from the PL in 2013.