Norwich vs. Fulham

Statistics can be deceiving is the old saying and in the case of the Norwich match I believe it but here is what I dug up anyway. My best prediction for the match is to throw out any expectations you might have from Fulham’s opening day 5-0 dissection of Norwich City or their overall minus fifteen goal differential because everything else about this match indicates it will be a very close match.

In spite of what Norwich’s large negative goal differential on the season may indicate they are a team that manages to keep matches tight. Twenty-one of their twenty-five matches played to date have been decided by one goal or less and ten of those ended in draws. Of the eleven matches that have been decided by one goal Norwich has won six and lost five. Fulham have done fairly well at keeping matches close as well by participating in seventeen matches decided by one goal or less. Another three of Fulham’s twenty-five matches have been decided by two goals or less.

The Canaries poor goal differential has come from four blow-out matches all of which took place on the road. Throughout the course of the year the home pitch has been a balm to Norwich where, in twelve matches, they have scored fourteen and conceded fourteen goals with five wins, four draws and only three losses. The upside is their home form has seemed to wane recently with two of the three losses and two of the four draws coming in their last five home matches.
If anything indicates that it will tip this match away from a close match in favor of Norwich it is Fulham’s road form where the Whites have opened the express lane to Mark Schwarzer’s goal far too often and conceded ten more than they have scored. In the last five on the road the squad has allowed nine goals while scoring three with one win and one draw.

As for when the game might explode into a frenzy of goal scoring the Canaries seem to prefer the opening fifteen minutes of the match and closing fifteen minutes of each half to assert their prowess. During that time they have scored eighteen goals and conceded seventeen. During the middle fifteen of the first half and the opening thirty of the second had the Canaries have appeared to take a bit of a siesta with only seven scored and twenty-three conceded. If Fulham have any say in the matter the first half is likely to end in a draw. I am sure it will surprise no Fulham fan that the final thirty minutes of this season have been a free scoring frenzy where we have scored sixteen and conceded seventeen. Similar to Norwich we have conceded the opening fifteen minutes of the second half to our opponents and can account for four of the shipped out goals in our negative six goal differential during this stretch.

Now, here is my opinion on what to do with all of those lovely statistics. Print the page and stick it in the bottom of the nearest birdcage. Why? There are two good reasons to ignore every statistical category that can be crunched and calculated. First, the window just closed and I do believe in Fulham’s case this is not the same squad as just two weeks ago. There is more choice for Jol and more competition for spots in the squad which will hopefully produce some additional player resolve. I hope the heart and intent we witnessed Fulham play with against United is a good indication of what the fans will see for the remainder of this season.

Second, and more importantly, this is a big match and I do mean a BIG match. The only statistic that really matters is both squads sit on twenty-eight points and whoever wins this match is sitting much closer to the magical, mystical forty point mark with at worse no team below closing the gap to relegation. A loss means the chance for those sitting below to close the distance. Playing with breathing room or pressure is what this match is all about. I expect both teams are going to come out and play with heart and intensity and that for this reason the match will be tightly and closely contested. Fulham looked like a team renewed with spirit against United and Norwich City looked like they were holding on for dear life against QPR. I expect neither the statistics nor the previous weeks performance to matter much come kick-off because both teams will see the three-point brass ring hanging in front of them and I expect they will both be desperately grasping for it.

Fulham Top Threats
Goals – Berbatov 8, Petric 5
Assists – Duff 7, Ruiz 6

Norwich City Top Threats
Goals - Holt, Pikington and Snodgrass - 4
Assists – Pikington and Snodgrass - 3

 

Heather, can Barry's excellent preview be put on the front page?

 

Very good analysis, thanks, Barry. COYW

 

I just hope Ruiz has some legs under him after the long trip for Intl duty. Despite scoring the game-leveling goal, I read he did not play well.

 

I'm really wondering if MJ will play Ruiz at all, considering the travel, and his propensity of picking up hamstring knocks.

 

Wow great write up Barry. If we contain Snotty then we will win.

 

Martin Jol's interview from the Offal. Didn't realize we had 12 international players out this week. Biggest concern is whether or not Berba will be able to go, and concern over Bryan having to fly 15 hours. He didn't mention Brede, so I'll take that as he is ready ray: . Enjoyed MJ saying Urby is not exactly 'Arnold Schwarzenegger' when it comes to his strength.

http://www.fulhamfc.com/news/2013/febru ... ager-video

 

Another article did have Jol saying Brede was okay but had picked up a knock. Berbatov would be a match day decision

 

I think we're looking at a 1-1 draw. On the plus side, Norwich's form and the fact that we've come out of our doldrums. And we're a greater threat to score, or have been at times. That's about it though.

Against us, the fact that it's a road match. We haven't strung together 3 good performances all year, even during our strong start. Norwich find themselves in the same "backs against the wall" spot that we faced v West Ham and will have the home support to propel them. Plus they've got to have a little payback on their minds after that 5-0 tonking we gave them in August. Hughton spent 3 yrs coaching under Jol and will know his tactics. When you throw in that Jol wouldn't know a halftime adjustment if it bit him on his ample derriere, that could benefit them as well.

I disagree on Snodgrass. If anyone's going to score on us, I think it's probably Holt. We struggle with strong target men who are good in the air. This is largely down to the fact that we don't use our cm's effectively as cover for the back four and also, of the cm's we've deployed this year, none are ball winners. Who we play on the wings will be a factor there as our cm's usually spend more time covering for wings with defensive liabilities and assisting the fullbacks out wide. This would open the middle of the pitch for a guy like Holt. Much like it did with Lambert.

Watched Jol's presser. He actually gave away a good bit of info on squad selection, unless that's just coachspeak. He's been a little too "refreshingly honest" for me though, so I'd be more inclined to take him at what he says.

Saying all that, a loss sounds more likely except for the fact that I don't think Norwich have more than one goal in them, and if we continue to play more direct, I can't see them keeping us off the score sheet. We're the only ones that can do that if we switch back to the passive, possession offense game on the road. I really hope we don't do that.

 

I was afraid that, on the road, we'd revert back to that passive, slow-down, possession based attack that saw us slide down the table. And we did. And it was boring. No goals, very few shots, 1 point earned. That's ok against a better side, but Norwich are still a side comprised largely of Championship players and that's a road match where we should be going for the win. Not playing so safe. Very disappointing.

Most strikers want to score and can be downright greedy about it. Not sure why we're saddled with such a talented one who looks like that's the last thing he wants to do.

Frimpong and Manolev looked pretty good in their debuts. Not sure they look to be much more than depth at this point, but it's way too early to judge.

I hope Jol bails at season end and we get someone else in. Unfortunately, the ship will likely have sailed on Adkins by then. Maybe Wigan go down and we can nick Martinez.

 

:sleeping-sleeping: Pretty much sums up the play of both sides, but a good time in the chat and a point away were some positives.

 

All today's match proves is Norwich is difficult to breakdown at home with Bassong anchoring the defense.

 

What pissed me off most was that FSC posted the score during the Southampton-MC post-match discussion, just before showing the FFC match. Brilliant. So, there I was, knowing the score and that no goals meant that there wasn't a chance of a late goal. A rather dull affair, with our players out of sync in the offensive zone. Lots of ball handling, but little creativity. It was a real snoozer.

 

:clap: One thing that wasn't 'excruciating and slow' was HD's VFST. The opening paragraph was top shelf, had me laughing when describing Jol's 'sexy football'.

 

I like that, Martin Jol Sexy Football. Unfortunately, the football is about as sexy as the man himself. His goal for the team is certainly doable, just look at Swansea. But for whatever reason we have struggled bringing in players to seemlessly fit into that style while Swans seem like they almost can't miss on signings. Swansea don't play the slow down version the way we do either though. They're far more active and while they will hold the ball, they play direct a fair amount as well.

I know I sound like a broken record, but I liked it better when we built our side to beat the bottom half of the table. We're 9th in the league in revenue, so there are 10-12 teams we can compete with head to head, either on level ground or where we hold an advantage. Building a team to beat those sides makes more sense than trying to build a bargain version of the Big 6 sides. If we can do that, and do it very well again, we can punch above our weight on occassion and trouble the big boys b/c we'll always be able to defend. I think there were some that got caught up in our success and thought with a change in style, we could compete at the next level. Unfortunately, we either didn't have the budget to keep our talent or we lacked the foresight to see we could lose them and found ourselves in transition with a bunch of holes in the side. We don't have a good track record of plugging holes expediantly, regardless of manager.

 

"Martin Jol Sexy Football" - best thing to come out of this season. Thanks again for the write up, HD.

It's the type of "Sexy Football" you see after a 5 gin and tonic night, mixed in with a shot or two of Fernet. Hull City looks good after that type of night as well...

 

:lol:

Nev, gin and fernet? Any personal experiences you would like to share? bscene-drinkingbuddies: