Lebanon and the world..

Lebanon was, seems like eons ago, the most secular of all Arab countries... in fact it was 'party-time central' of the middle east.
And they got along great with Israel.

And, of course Syria didnt like that... so we got infiltration of the Baathist {same as Saddam} but of Shia caste, as well as harder line Islamic Shia's. Which at the time Syria thought they could gain something by warring on Israel, dragged Lebanon into a civil war... in which a side note was attacks on Israel from within S Lebanon. To boot, the Lebanese Christian community was also terrorized. So Israel occupied the southern part with the help of Lebanese Christian Militia.

A 'cease fire truce' had Israel ultimately withdrawing, which led to the Christian Lebanese mostly electing to leave the country.

Recently an uprising in the streets forced Syria to supposedly withdraw from the country but not completely.. they still had Hezbollah implanted in the south and here's the tricky part.

The Hez, on Syria and/or iran orders set out to provoke Israel until they fought back

Iran is funding and supplying them through Syria.. now these are formerly and future sworn enemies, Baathists being nominally islamic, really secular-fascist and Iran being hard-line religio fascist... and insisting on Sharia or a form of it.

So the only thing they REALLY have in common is hatred of Israel and the west... and each obviously think once they have that situation taken care of, they can deal with their former enemy/ally later.

Now... the PM of Lebanon is in a real pickle. He has Hezbollah NOW ingrained into his governemnt as a significant minority so he doesnt dare piss them off.

So he has said he's going to look the other way as long as the Hez dont brandish their rockets and arms.
The UN peacekeepers, as always having previously watched the hez set up launchers right next to them will supposedly 'enforce' the truce.. with strong suggestion of protest, no doubt.

Though THIS resolution truce has as a part, Hezbollah disarming, so did 1559, and the UN was supposed to see it was done.

Given the recent failures of ANY UN peacekeeping missions, anywhere, is there any hope of this being different?

It wont be...

It MIGHT last as long as two weeks or just long enough for the Hez to get orders and plan to find a way to make another statement.
Along with that, Iran promises an 'event that will shake the west' on or about the 22nd...

I'm thinking a nuke test... or, much worse, why not test it on-target.

And there may likely be near simultaneous terror attacks on US and Euro infrastructure using some of those thousands of Cell phones we keep hearing about.

Sorry but there it is... some will still ignore events of the last fifty years as a way to blame it all on US... but others will have to smell the stink.

 

Petty, what do you foresee happening with the thousands of cell phones? What kind of an attack?

 

Same as Spain and a lot of the Iraqi IED's. They are the trigger of choice.

Could be trains.. could even be planes.. note there was an incident this week.. cellphone ringing on a plane, no one fessed up and it was never found. Dry run?

Then the trains in NE corridor.. 'suspicious package', another dry run?

As to possibility of Iran setting off a nuke, it is REAL possibility. N Korea has a couple, most think. And they are co-conspirators in weapons with Iran.

 

I read a great story in yesterdays NY Times. Well the news wasn't great but the writing was I mean. To summarize it said Hezbolla is leading the rebuilding effort with unlimited Iranian funds. Basically the government is far to incompetent to lead a successful rebuilding program so Hezbolla has taken it upon themselves. Among other things they are giving $10,000, yes American dollars, to each family that lost their home.

It looks like Hezbolla got exactly what they wanted, draw Israel across the border and proved they can fight with them toe to toe. As far as rebuilding, that’s absolutely brilliant. Whatever part of the population wasn't behind them will most certainly be behind them now. I imagine Hezbolla could easily overthrow the fragile Lebanese government right now if they wished. If not they'll probably just do it through democratic means as their already an established party. They will surely be a lapdog for Iran, right next door to Israel. Iran must be throwing an extreme amount of money into this. These guys, Hezbolla and Iran know what their doing.

 

Wait! I though BuSh had said Hizbollah had been defeated. What happened?

If it wasn't for his declaration of victory in Iraq, I would be at a loss.

 

Your side won.. that's what! So he's spinning it for effect.
How many years of beat-down do you want him to take... you should be happy. I'm not.

I dont remember any declaration of VICTORY in Iraq.... despite the stupid -ass Dem spin given the putrposely IGNORANT misstating of the term 'Mission' when applied to military movement..
Do you know Olmert is a Liberal? Elected on the go-along, get along platform? He's Israel's John Kerry.

I suppose you'll have a point on the issues rather than some smart-ass comment.

 

Here's the Lib's hero...
SPIEGEL INTERVIEW WITH JIMMY CARTER

Bullsh!t spin! Iraq war fit the template of Korean war.. and then there was the Spanish American war.. and our entrance into WWII came about because Tojo was sure we would sue for peace after Pearl Harbor, having had both Congress and the press vocally saying we had no business in European wars.

Repeated violation of cease-fire terms mean nothing to Carter.. he would turn all 4 cheeks until they hit the bulls-eye.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Carter did ONE thing while he was President. The Begin-Sadat Camp David accord... but that was AFTER Egypt attacked Israel and lost the Sinai.
Sadat being a reasonable guy thought it might be worth while to not make that mistake again.. so he signed and meant to keep the agreement. And he got assassinated for his trouble.

And Carter says that Egypt hasnt violated the agreement... again, Carter lies for effect. The difference is that Egypt looked the other way while arms were being sent to Palestine through tunnels under the border. Just a small thing, though.

Then there's the ultimate triumph of Carter Admin diplomacy... how he kept agreeing to additional Iranian demands during the Embassy hostage crisis.. and Iran kept raising the ante. the BEST thing to come out of that is that Iran released them on Reagan's inauguration day.

What that showed us is that just has been proved in Israel... if you give them something for peace, that encourages them to try for more.

Much is made of the beauty of cultural diversity.. and the core tenet of Arab 'sensitivity' is that the weak deserve what they get.

A sub-tenet is that you always blame your enemy for your own weaknesses and troubles.

Anyone have teenagers?

Next: We address Carter's triumphal negotiations in N Korea.. where he showed US good will in return for a promise not to develop nukes.

He even pissed off Bill Clinton.. and we see what happened. Bush got the blame for breaking the agreement, even though he wasnt even in office when the N Korean violation was in the press.

Want to talk about Carter's 'malaise' speech.. "We have to learn to do with less"

Because he didnt have a CLUE! And Reagan showed we were only limited by our doubts.