Latest Polls, Map

Alright no debate and other crap on this one please just anyalsis of the polls, map and horse race please

I've been looking at the latest polls because I'm a electoral geek;
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/

Its early days but a lot of the states have multiple recent polls from more than one source. Heres a few standouts.

Flordia- McCain 45-41 per Quinnipiac 5/22

Ohio- McCain 44-40 per Qunni 5/22
McCain 45-44 per Rasmussen 5/19
Obama 48-39 per SurveryUSA 5/23 wtf????

Michigan- McCain 45-44 per Rasmussen 5/12

Minnesota- Obama 51-38 per Star Tribune 5/18 amazing its that wide, Kerry won by 1%

Iowa- Obama 44-42 per Rass 5/15
Obama 49-41 per KCRG TV 4/27
Obama 47-38 per Survery USA 5/27

Wisconsin- McCain 47-43 per Rass 5/7
Obama 47-43 per U of Wisconsin 4/27

Colorado- Obama 48-42 per Rass 5/21

New Mexico- Obama 50-41 per Rass 5/17
Obama 48-40 per SurveryUSA 5/20

Nevada- McCain 46-40 per Rass 5/22

Pennsylvania- Obama 46-40 per Quni 5/22
Obama 47-38 per Quni 5/1
Tie 44-44 per Survey USA 5/20
Obama 45-43 per Rass 5/23

Virgina- McCain 47-44 per Rass 5/12
Obama 49-42 per SurveryUSA 5/22

New Hampshire- Obama 48-43 per Rass 5/23

Also; Obama has consistent leads in Washington, Oregon, NJ,
McCain in Missouri[/b]

So take these scenario for example;


275-263 for McCain


273-265 for Obama

or....

269-269 Tie, tie likely goes to Obama

work your own scanario;
http://www.270towin.com/

 

If Obama picks Webb, he wins 288-250. He wins Virginia and North Carolina. He's also going to the the Southwest.

 

Good stuff, Spencer.

The idea is to establish the starting point and track changes as issues and talking points develop. Much better than only a retrospective.

 

Both McCain and Obama have made stops in Colorado this week. It's good to see Colorado getting attention this election and I think it will be interesting to see how the state reacts to hosting DNC.

 

[quote="HatterDonUnless Obama is dumber than anyone thinks, I doubt he'll pick another sitting US Senate Democrat. If he wins, that's two open seats and the Democratic majority gone. [/quote]
This point is rather insignificant as the governor from each state will then pick someone to take each seat in the Senate. Seeing as both Virginia and Illinois have Democratic governors, it is a shoe in that each would fill that seat with a fellow Democrat.

Webb was elected in 2006 so his replacement would have 4 years to make a name for himself/herself. Obama was elected in 2004 so his successor would get 2 years to get settled and make a name. That is plenty of time for each person to get established.

I am not saying I am for or against the idea of Webb as the VP, but I am just saying that Don's idea of why Webb would NOT be selected does not really hold up.

 

Webb would win Virginia for him and NC is because of the large african-american vote. I also believe they have a decent chunk of Libertardians there too so Barr should pick up votes too and that takes away from McCain.

 

Ok I've been playing with my map and have come up with a format which I will update every now and then when new polls come in.

I've been using the realclearpolitics.com average for the swing states, although if one polls is way out of whack with the others I throw it out (ohio), and primarily Rasmussen for the others. For some of the states there is not much recent data but I go with whats available.

 

It's tough being surrounded in (almost) every direction by stubbornness, inflexibility, and intolerance.

 

I didnt know Ward Churchill's cult was that big out there... you could move to Grand Junction.

:twisted:

 

I'd think that kind of stereotyping would indicate you're inflexible and intolerant as well. :wink:

 

Haven't seen anything regarding her veep viability. Plenty of polls showing that she'd do better in states on the east coast and worse in the west if she were a top the ticket.

btw new Rass polls show that McCain holds South Dakota by 10 points and Montana by only 5.

 

New poll of a different kind from Rasmussen...
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... of_friends

Would you vote for a black candidate?

Yes 78%
No 11%
Not sure 11%

Hate using the r-word because its thrown around so casually but its unavoidable here. One out of ten Americans are admitting they're racist another one out of ten aren't quite sure. (I'm sure; they are) And out of the 78% how many are just saying yes out of PC reflex? Of course one could be a racist but find it within them to vote for a black candidate. Its all tricky business. What is a racist exactly anyhow?

Do you think your family, friends, coworkers would vote for a black candidate?

Yes 61%
No 14%
Not sure 25%

Notice people don't automatically throw their peers under the bus and instead opt for not sure yet there not as likely to give a reflex yes on their peers behalf. I would guesstimate the 60% figure is a more accurate count of those truly willing and 25% probably an accurate figure of those who would waver on such a choice.


Also brand spanking new Rasspoll in the state of Missouri
Obama 43%
McCain 42%

 

Agreed. Assuming because you lean to the right, you are somehow 'by default' intolerent is what we call elitism, which is just another word for intolerant.

The left needs the right and the right needs the left, just so we can stay close to the middle.

 

New polls, new map



Notice the whole strip From Michigan to Ohio to W. Virgina to Virgina to N. Carolina have moved at least one shade closer to blue. Missouri and crucially Wisconsin also has moved to Obama and McCain's lead has lessened in Montana, Mississippi, and Georgia.

On the other hand a new U of NH poll shows a complete reversal in McCain's favor there and Texas has returned to a more customary deeper red.

If you followed the latest results to the letter Obama would win 283-255.

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... l_election


HMMM.... seems like I'm closer to being right than you are on Virginia. Maybe it's because my opinions aren't so strange.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/ge ... sults.html


Seems as though North Carolina is getting closer and closer too.