Price at the pump / energy futures {in all senses}

Discussion in 'Miscellaneous' started by pettyfog, Sep 7, 2006.

  1. pettyfog

    pettyfog Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    Gasoline price keeps dropping..

    As an average observer.. or maybe not so average...
    I think there's more to it than no-news on the hurricane front or the drop in crude.
    While news stories tout those reasons, the crude price doesnt really account for it... after all the Iran thing isnt getting any better.

    I suspect the refiners have changed their markup algorithm.

    Let's face it... percentage markup is the norm for producers of all types, aspecially in commodity goods. But it doesnt cost much* more to refine $70 crude than $25 crude.
    * utility costs, indirectly related, factor in.

    So I think they've changed the markup method to keep production up.

    The system works.

    Other, probably significant, factors:

    New discoveries in the Gulf

    Momentum to 'redevelop' Coal to Oil process. {If that, itself, were in full blown operation we'd already be totally self-sufficient}

    Those two factors are key to avoiding a vast consumer rip-off relating to ethanol or 'E-85'.

    Along with oil-sands/oil-shale recovery, the THINKING man might come up with the idea that there's no reason for us to be importing ANY oil, other than from Canada. Which wouldnt totally isolate us from international prices but would remove the wild-card from foreign influences, especially Chavez.

    Here's some industry-related info on coal to oil:
    http://www.moneyweek.com/file/13377/could-coal-replace-oil.html

    Sound too good to be true?

    Well, according to the NIMBYOAE {Not In My Back Yard Or Anywhere Else} folks, it is.

    http://www.ultradirtyfuels.com/

    Read the parts about feedstocks and processes... these are smart people.. they write it, seemingly, in dispassionate terms but throw in little 'hooks' to generate a morbid reaction:
    ... equivalent leaks to about ten miles of heavily traveled interstate highway, except it's into catch-basins instead of on the ground.
    - Let's all sing a chorus of Officer Krupke!

    and the ultimate little bugger, MERCURY!!!!!

    - well, once again... we find people tend to use only the scientific facts that suit them, WHEN it suits them.

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/10/051004084651.htm

    Also note the snide reference to SASOL converting to NaturalGas as a feedstock.. without mentioning WHY!

    So I propose we could get around all that by moving that pilot plant to western coal fields, and put in windmill farms and pelletized bed Nuclear Power reactors... thus effectively zeroing CO2 and mercury emissions.

    Eh... what's that?...oh... never mind.
     
    #1
  2. HatterDon

    HatterDon Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2006
    Location:
    Peoples Republic of South Texas
    Last week I heard that one of the reasons for the oil "shortages" is that they're becoming very popular on commodities trading. Oil futures are almost risk-free 9-15% moneymakers over 6 months, and lots of the larger stock portfolios are factoring them in. The problem is that while investors are making good money on these ventures, signifinicant pools of oil that are ready to be refined are held off the market for 6 months. That makes scarcity more significant, and scarcity makes prices go up.

    There's some legislation in the offing to limit this, which in itself might make oil prices more stable.

    What really will keep prices down, however, is fear of a Republican debacle at the polls in November. Once the elections are over, prices will rise again.
     
    #2
  3. pettyfog

    pettyfog Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    Here's news:
    First, where ya been? Nothing new there about the commodities market distorting... been that way for years. But things always work out, in the long run, dont they?

    There is ALWAYS a lead-lag factor but maybe I'm lucky, I live in an area where Marathon/Speedway controls retail prices and the pump price increases and decreases equally with the crude market.. 2.29 at the pump, as we write.

    Now.. EVEN I had been waiting for the guvmint to call in the producers and putting a halt to the mark-up algorithm as it was... or suspend commodities trading in oil as a fiat.
    But I think again.. and say to myself, give the system a chance.

    After all.... it's the little guy's ERA and 401 that's benefitting, too.

    Whereas when Guvmint takes that increase by raising taxes to the same effect, it doesnt have NEARLY the capital turnover effect of the private investor's return.

    BTW: I assume you meant that part about the prices falling related to the election as a simple observation.

    a. Want me to point out the Dems who grabbed the nearest Mic and wailed for Dubya to DO something?

    b. A Dem Admin/ Congress would NEVER seek to influence industry or ANY ONE else who supplied goods and services, for its own benefit... guess you got me there!

    heh!
     
    #3
  4. pettyfog

    pettyfog Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2005
    And ANUVVER FING!!!
    What's your comment on THAT?

    I noticed you cant be bothered to comment when the consumer is being ripped off by government mandate!

    Even when the nasty private sector reaps rewards.
     
    #4
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