Fulham 2020-21 Mid-Season Check-in

Fulham isn't quite halfway through the season with the Burnley match still waiting to be played, but everyone else has already faced Fulham once, so this is a good time to see where things stand.

Fulham currently has 12 points. That is two points better than in 2018-19, but four points worse than in 2013-14 - Fulham's two most recent relegation seasons in the Premier League. In the past twelve years the average points needed for safety is 37 (highest 40, lowest 35). Fulham has less than 1/3rd the points needed to reach that mark with about 1/2 the season gone, so the team is clearly in grave danger of being relegated again.

In order for Fulham to get in the ballpark of safety, they will need to earn 25 additional points. That works out to 1.25 points per match, about twice the current rate of 0.67 points per match. A record over the remaining matches of 7W, 4D, 9L would get Fulham 37 points. That is only one loss fewer than what they've had so far, but it means getting a lot more wins. Over the past eight matches the only team Fulham has been gaining ground on is Newcastle and they still have a seven point cushion. Fulham will clearly need to start getting three-point results quickly if they want to have a shot. Their current form is not remotely close enough.

There is probably enough talent on the squad to make a successful push if they can just convert a few more goals. The next two matches against Brighton and West Brom will be key. If they can get six points from those two matches then the distance to the other strugglers will seem more reasonable. If Fulham doesn't get six points, the gap could start to look insurmountable.

 

@MicahMan - Nice analysis. The defense has been dramatically improved since the beginning of the season but I am struggling to see how the squad will win 7 matches with the lackluster goal production to date. Something has to change but we live in hope.