The Grim Outlook for Avoiding Relegation

With only 4 or 5 points currently separating Fulham from the relegation zone, it feels like with just a couple breaks Fulham could get out of relegation. However, when looking at point trends for this season and what would need to be done for the remaining games to stay up, things look grim.

Points Needed for Safety
In the past 10 years the average points for the top relegated team was 35 and the bottom safe team was 38. Based on projections from current form this season 37 points would see a team through to safety. So with those two data points, lets use 37 points as Fulham's goal for safety.

Fulham currently has 14 points with 17 matches to go. To get to 37 points Fulham will need 23 points over the rest of the season - 1.35 points per match.

Likelihood of Getting to Safety
Earning 1.35 PPM over the remaining 17 matches will be a tall order for Fulham. To put this into context, over the past 17 matches the teams that had the closest PPM to 1.35 were Wolverhampton and Brighton (1.41 and 1.29 PPM respectively). That means that starting right now Fulham needs to play like a mid-table team.

There are lots of ways to earn 23 points, but if Fulham were to keep the same ratio of wins to draws (3 to 5) going forward that would mean Fulham would close out the season with a 5W 8D 4L record. That's right, only four losses over the remaining matches and Fulham still has to play 5 of the top 6 teams! This also likely means that Fulham must figure out how to win on the road since Fulham only has 4 home matches left against teams in the bottom half of the table.

Things have improved under Ranieri, but the PPM under his management is still an anemic 1 PPM. If Fulham had started the season with that PPM it might have been enough, but Fulham is already in a hole so they must get better now.

Looking for the Bright Side
Fulham has very little that is encouraging, but the home/away match ups are favorable going forward. The remaining top teams will all play Fulham at Craven Cottage, so that helps the likelihood of escaping from some of those matchups with points. Cardiff also has to go on the road to face many of the teams fighting to stay out of relegation, so hopefully they will drop points in those matchups against weaker competition. Beyond that, I'm not sure what find encouraging.

In summary, staying in the Premier League is possible, but unlikely. Every loss from this point forward will put a significant dent in Fulham's hopes for avoiding relegation.

 

What's also grim is our March schedule, and how crucially important January and February is in the lead-up.

Jan & Feb Schedule:
1/12 Burnley A
1/20 Spurs H
1/29 Brighton H
2/2 Crystal Palace A
2/9 United H
2/22 West Ham A
2/27 Southampton A

Not awful, not great, but if we want to stay up we need to do well in this stretch. Because...

March:
3/2 Chelsea H
3/9 Leicester A
3/16 Liverpool H
3/30 City H

Uhhhh, it's very possible we get bagel'd in March. That is a brutal schedule.

If things go awry, we may be well adrift by the Cardiff and Newcastle matches in April/May.

 

That schedule also gives us very little time to incorporate new players to take advantage of what may be the best opportunity to improve on results from the first half of the season. They'll have to make an impact immediately - think Mitrovic of 2018 and not Mitroglou of 2014.

 

...all of which will contribute to staying up being that much sweeter. COYW.

(now I'm going to go cry in my pillow)

 

Tough to comment in a positive fashion given the Oldham loss, but a couple rays of sunshine:

The final 3 matches are home to Cardiff & Newcastle, sandwiched w/a match at Wolves (who should be sitting safely mid-table).

The last two seasons (34 & 35 points) were enough, so hoping it’s the same.

While it looks bleak, win 2 matches in a row and it all changes.

 

Sky Sports has provided a summary of the clubs in relegation range. Not much analysis, but a lot of stats to ingest. Outside of the formerly mentioned Newcastle and Cardiff and a Southampton match, Fulham's schedule is brutal. At this point I have no expectation of survival, but it sure would be great to get a surprise come May.

https://www.skysports.com/football/...-league-relegation-battle-analysed-with-stats

 

A pep talk from Shad. He conveniently left out our abysmal performance at Selhurst, and the fact we haven't won on the road. But what else can he say?

http://www.fulhamfc.com/news/2019/february/08/chairmans-notes

 

I’m taking the opposite approach as Shad and accepting relegation early to cushion the blow.

 

We finished w/32 points back in ‘14 when relegated. I’m guessing this team finishes with 25/26 tops.

 

Pretty good summation by the only real beat reporter, that I can find anyway, on what’s gone wrong so far this season. I hadn’t considered the supposedly inordinate number of loan players we used to get promoted, but it makes sense, sort of. I’ve never truly understood the whole loan part of this game, but it seems to me any loanee can be had for the right price.

https://www.football.london/fulham-fc/errors-left-fulham-no-identity-15811352