Typical Life of a Newly Promoted Premier League Team

Fulham is now less than a week away from playing in the Premier League again. The summer transfer window has been good for Fulham and the team certainly finished last season strong, but what are the typical prospects for a newly promoted team? What kind of odds are Fulham facing for long-term success?

Since 2000, there have been 54 promotions to the Premier League. Over that time span, 39% of teams were relegated back to the Championship after just one season. Three times since 2000 all three teams survived the first year, including all three promoted teams from last season. In the past 18 seasons there has never been a time when all three promoted teams went back down after just one season.

Percent of Teams Relegated After One Season

As the chart shows, Fulham is in the weakest position with 50% of Championship playoff winners heading back down after just one season in the Premier League.

Of course, we’d like to have more than just one season in the Premier League, but long-term success for a promoted team is hard to come by. Of the 20 teams in the Premier League, 13 have been promoted within the past seven years. The remaining seven teams include six who have been in the Premier League since its inception in 1992. Only Manchester City has been promoted and established itself as a Premier League regular. Leicester also deserves special recognition for winning the Premier League just two years after winning promotion.

Seasons in Premier League for All Teams Promoted Since 2000

The chart above shows how hard it is to maintain an extended presence in the Premier League. Since 2000, 52% of teams that were promoted were relegated within two years and only 15% last beyond seven years. The two standouts in longevity are Manchester City who are entering their 17th season after promotion in 2002 and Fulham who managed 13 seasons in the Premier League. Other than Manchester City, Southampton and West Ham have the longest active stretch in the Premier League for a promoted team with both entering their seventh season.

Position of Promoted Teams in the 2017-18 Premier League

I’ve made the comment that there isn’t much difference between the bottom 50% of the Premier League and the top 25% of the Championship. Part of that feeling is because Fulham was in the Championship with 6 of the teams in the Premier League last season and it will go up to 8 this season. The competition is familiar in many ways despite having not been in the league since 2014.

Although promoted teams typically populate the bottom half of the table, it seems that each season one of the recently promoted clubs finishes high enough to qualify for the Europa League. Burnley, West Ham, Newcastle, and Southampton all qualified for Europa in their 2nd or 3rd season in the EPL. Play in the Europa Cup is achievable for newly promoted teams, but reaching the Champions League is far more rare with only two teams promoted since 2000, Manchester City and Leicester, able to reach that goal.

Life in the Premier League for recently promoted teams is often brutal, unforgiving, and short-lived. However, Fulham has made it clear by keeping most of their existing talent, spending big to bring in new players, and renovating Craven Cottage to make it more profitable that they are going to make every effort to stick around for a while.

 

This should go on the front page, great stuff Micah!

 

50% of Playoff winners go down...or glass half full...50% stay up! I have to say this was great work and if I have to be honest, a bit depressing (glass half full). This is life not supporting a top 5/6 mega team. Here is for being a statistical outlier, another 13 years in the prem or longer.

Leicester fans had the run of a lifetime. Extremely likely I won't see something like that again in the years I have left here.

 

50% of Playoff winners go down...or glass half full...50% stay up! I have to say this was great work and if I have to be honest, a bit depressing (glass half EMPTY). This is life not supporting a top 5/6 mega team. Here is for being a statistical outlier, another 13 years in the prem or longer.

Leicester fans had the run of a lifetime. Extremely likely I won't see something like that again in the years I have left here.

Quote adjusted above.