Fulham vs Wigan Athletic

Wigan are second from the bottom following a disastrous December. Rebounded a bit in January with 3 wins but still -12 goal difference and 17 points behind us....which means absolutely zilch in this league. Gotta start beating teams like this on a regular basis, or we're not gonna sniff the playoffs this season. Hoping Birmingham City was just an aberration. Still bullish on the team and Joka, despite all the online hand wringing after every loss. I'm guessing Slava will probably go back to Malone instead of Sessegnon. I'm OK with that. Let's hope we get our mojo back quick at home, and stay close to sixth.

 

On paper this should be a comfortable day at the office, but with all the points that have slipped through our fingers there isn't a whole lot margin for error. Get the 3 points and let's press on.

 

NEED THESE 3! I realize they are all getting important at this stage, but we can't drop points to lesser teams and expect to get in the playoffs.

 

Given our home form versus away, I hesitate to call any match at home a comfortable day at the office.
I'm not sure there is even such a thing in this league. Unless you are like Newcastle or Brighton this season, and are clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the teams, every game is a toss up. This is as much due to incredibly inconsistent officiating as it is relative parity.
As someone pointed out in an earlier thread, there are a LOT of teams either side of us in the table that are bullish on that last playoff spot. Our saving grace, if we can leapfrog a few more of them, is our superior goal difference. But that won't save you if you don't get the points you SHOULD be getting, and we have, indeed, dropped too many already this season. There's still enough out there to get it done, but we have to start now. Any more draws that feel like a loss, and we're not gonna be there at the end of April.
I still like our team a lot, barring injury. It's a far cry from recent seasons, and I'm optimistic we can make the playoffs, maybe even make a deep FA Cup run. We're gonna get outplayed. We're gonna lose some matches we deserve to lose. We CAN'T lose or draw any more matches we deserve to WIN. Starting NOW, we have to get more from everybody and get something even more special (and even lucky) from some guys who no one expects to do something special. And we need some luck.
Buckle up.

 

For the rest of the season, we are playing 11 teams currently below us and 6 teams currently above us. If we win against those below us, lose to those above us and draw with those that are currently within three points of us then we'd finish out the rest of the season 10-2-5 for a total of 75 points. 75 points would have been enough to get into the playoffs in 4 out of the last 5 seasons.

That finish would require a 59% winning percentage for the rest of the season which is quite a bit higher than our current 38%. The number of losses is actually on par, so the key factor is getting what would have been draws to be wins, and the easiest way to have gotten those points earlier this season would have been converting PK's.

So the playoffs are within reach, but it will be tight and we must beat teams like Wigan.

And can I just say how NICE it is to do this kind of thinking about if we will get a shot at promotion rather than calculating our odds of relegation!

 

Love the analytics Micah. Fits my accounting personality. Of course, also makes me a bit more pessimistic.

 

From one accounting geek/spreadsheet jockey to another, I couldn't agree more.

 

This will forever be remembered as the day the FUSA accounting nerds came out of the closet as I count myself a proud member.

 

Kalas out again. Not good.

http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/spor...ews/fulham-missing-two-against-wigan-12589362

 

As Jump so eliquently said in the chat; 'We were toast, and now we're bacon!!' Well done to the lads for pulling that one out of the fire! 3 points added to the total, and sticking with the group in the fight for 6th.

 

Wow. Last year, the year before, the year before and the year before, we lose this match. What struck me from just the highlights was how much we miss Kalas. For whatever reason, he seems injury prone.
BUT...GREAT character and fortitude shown by THIS year's team that, as I said, has been sorely missing for a long, long time. What also struck me was how calm, cool and collected we were at the end. Execution and finishing at crunch time was incredible. The free kick trick play that really wasn't all that tricky worked thanks to a great strike by Odoi. And Cairney's pinpoint pass to Kebano for the assist on the winner had to be pinpoint, or the game's over. What a finish by Kebano. Wasn't nearly as easy as it looked. We're still alive.

Wow.