College Football 2016-2017

This really is a slow week after a great first week.

I agree, going with the feel-good story of Pitt.

Vols. Better than they played that first week, and maybe somewhat of a learning lesson for them.

I'll actually take the Hogs with the upset. Same with the Vols, I think they came out slow and are a better team than how they played.

Pac-12 Utah. Sure. I'll take them.

 

Good first week for my Ags. It was a roller coaster in the second half, but we pulled out a good win. I was encouraged by our rushing for over 200 yds & holding the Bruins to 3.1 ypc b/c those have been the 2 criticisms of A&M since joining the SEC. I'm a little concerned that Trevor Knight looked like the same Trevor Knight. 52% comp pct & a pick isn't going to get it done in conference play. A lot of his misses came early though, so maybe it was rust & first game jitters. We host Prairie View A&M this week. I hate that even though I know that one game goes a long way toward funding PV's AD for the year. On to the picks...

Penn St @ Pitt - I'll jump on the Panther bandwagon as well. PSU struggled with a veteran NFL prospect qb last year. Probably won't be any different with a new one, at least early this year.

Virginia Tech v Tennessee - I'll go with the Vols to bounce back after staggering out of the gate. There won't be any excuse to come out flat for this one.

Arkansas @ TCU - the Frogs' defensive size is a concern. However the Hogs aren't that good. They're very physical & wear on teams later in the season, but under Bielama they've been slow starters when the opposition is still fresh. Horny Toads win.

Iowa St @ Iowa - it may not be heaven, but it'll feel like it is for the Hawkeyes.

BYU @ Utah - Whittingham is one of the most underrated coaches out there. Plus I don't like BYU. Utes win.

NC Central @ W Michigan - couldn't we have just given Dynamo a shout out instead of including this game? The Broncos have an NFL caliber wr & are a dark horse to challenge Houston for a NY6 bowl (no, I don't think UH gets in the playoff).

In a week short of compelling matchups, I'm surprised you left off UNC @ Illinois, especially given the FUSA ties. This one looks a lot more interesting now than it did a month ago. I'll take the Heels but won't be surprised if the Illini give them a game.

Upsets

So Carolina @ Miss St (-7) - the Gamecocks got their offense going in the 2nd half against a stingy Vandy D while the Bulldogs choked one away to S Alabama at home. SC is a 7 pt dog, but since I'm sure Joe won't consider it a legit upset I've got a couple more.

Illinois St @ Northwestern (no line) - The Redbirds are one or the best teams in FCS while the Cats are coming off an upset loss v W Mich.

BC (-16.5) @ UMass - the Minutemen held their own against Florida last week in the Swamp for 3 quarters & BC hasn't won in forever.

And keep an eye on Jacksonville St @ LSU (no line). The Gamecocks gave an offensively challenged Auburn a handful last year (and probably should have won) & went on to the FCS final. I think they could give the offensively challenged Tigers a similar problem. Of course Auburn didn't have Leonard Fournette & the game wasn't at night in Death Valley, so LSU probably wins.

 

Well, @SoCalJoe it's a funny story. There was a last minute change to the schedule, and WMU was open so we're here. Looking to get into the end zone this week, and hoping SC State puts up a good fight at LA Tech!

 

The town's all atwitter for the pending visit by the 'Noles. ESPN'S College Game Day is coming to town (along with former coach Lee Corso), so everybody's got their panties all in a wad. The Cardinals came close two seasons ago with Mr. Bridgewater at QB, but Jameis Winston and friends eased away for a fairly comfortable victory. As much as I'd like to see Louisville win, I still have some serious reservations about their chances this time as well. Yes, Lamar Jackson and the offense are putting up some ridiculous numbers, but they should have against Charlotte and Syracuse. And the Orange, not exactly world beaters, still hung 28 points on them in the Carrier Dome. As good as Jackson is, he's still primarily a running quarterback. I don't think he's a good enough passer to keep a defense of the quality of Florida State honest. I'd look for Jimbo to load up the box and dare Bobby Petrino and Lamar to beat them with the pass. I think they'll find the FSU defense a bit stingier than the one's they've faced thus far. And if Syracuse can score 28 against them, I'm sure the Seminoles will feel that they can do better, even on the road. Don't get me wrong, they've got their issues as well, but I'm reasonably certain that they've still got superior talent and depth at almost every position. I believe they've got more than enough firepower to make somebody besides Lamar Jackson beat them while scoring more than enough against a suspect defense. Louisville does have other weapons besides Lamar, but I don't know whether they can do enough to keep it close enough for them to have a chance to beat them. Because the 'Noles are gonna score a lot. The question is how much, and can the Cards keep pace. I seriously doubt they can. I CAN tell you we'll put on a good show for the cameras, and not just on the football field.

 

Going straight to the Upset Alert since it's tonight:

#6 Houston at Cincinnati. The Cougars are in rarified air, the Bearcats just beat a Big Ten team (albeit Purdue) on the road by 18. Greg Ward didn't play last week so his shoulder would be ready to go at QB for UH. The Cincy QB Hayden Moore is no joke. Going with Cincinnati to knock out Houston's playoff chances.

FUSA Game of the Week:
#2 Florida State at #10 Louisville. James already w/the outstanding analysis above. Certainly the Noles are used to this spotlight and already have been challenged and overcame Ole Miss. Would not be surprised in the least if the Cardinals win, but going with Micah's team to find a way.

Blue Bloods Game of the Week:
#3 Ohio State at #14 Oklahoma. When this was scheduled everyone figured it would be a matchup of 2 Top 5 teams. However, Oklahoma slipped up against Houston and now their chances of getting back to the Final 4 are probably on the line in Norman. JT Barrett is an outstanding QB for the Buckeyes and while I want to pick OU at home, I'm going w/OSU on the road.

Others:
#1 Alabama at #19 Ole Miss. OM is not intimidated by Alabama, but the collapse against Florida State is still too fresh.

#17 Texas A&M at Auburn; Matt can expand better, but this is a huge game for both squads in that division. Going with the Aggies to keep the momentum going.

#12 Michigan State at #18 Notre Dame; Sparty has only played Furman while ND figured out who the QB should be in a close loss at Texas. Going with the Irish.

#22 Oregon at Nebraska; Throwing this in because my brother and sister in-law (Duck season ticket holders) traveled to Kansas City to check it out and are driving up to Lincoln for a showdown with old Oregon State coach Mike Riley. The Ducks are relying for the second year in a row on a 5th year QB transfer from a smaller school (Dakota Prukop from Montana State). However, their D isn't very good. Riley gets his first win against UO in 9 years.

Colorado at #4 Michigan; Boogergate is sweeping the nation with Harbaugh in complete denial. Meatchicken (sorry Matt, I stole that one from you also) will win, but the Buffs might keep it interesting for awhile.

Other Possible Alert:

#25 Miami at Appalachian State. Credit to Miami for the guts to go to App State to play.

@LaxAttack , @astroevan . What about Iowa this week? Are the Coastal fans waiting for baseball or is the football team promising?

 

Tough week for upsets because it seems like most of the lines are less than a td or over 20 pts.

Houston @ Cincy - Thursday night games are often wild. I absolutely think Houston will slip up, but probably not yet. Beating Purdue doesn't impress me, so I'm taking the Cougars.

FSU @ Louisville - The Noles have already been punched in the face & overcame it in style. The Cards haven't. Plus Free Shoes U has a much better defense, despite the loss of James. Noles win.

Ohio St @ Oklahoma - The Sooners' Achilles heel is in the trenches. If UH was able to exploit it, the Buckeyes definitely will. tOSU also has the better coach.

Alabama @ Ole Miss - 3 in a row? Sorry, I just don't see it. Tide rolls.

A&M @ Auburn - the road team has won every game since we've joined the SEC. I think it'll be a defensive struggle & will come down to which qb makes the fewest mistakes. I still haven't seen enough progress out of Knight to make me comfortable, but I think he'll win this matchup. I'm very nervous about this one though.

Michigan St @ Notre Dame - we really don't know enough about what Dantonio's Spartans are yet. I don't love the Irish d, but I'll take them here.

Oregon @ Nebraska - I don't trust Corn...at all. But that Oregon defense is wretched. The N is for Nowledge & the Huskers win.

Upset Special.

Joe took Houston @ Cincy. I was tempted to take USC laying 8 @ Stanford. The Trojans are due a bounce back & the Cardinal were underwhelming v K St. But I just can't pull the trigger. So I'll go big...

Colorado @ Michigan (-20) - maybe I'm caught up in the nostalgia of Stewart to Westbrook in the Big House, but I'm gonna go with the Buffs to pull off the shocker.

 

Iowa plays five-time defending FCS champion North Dakota State. They might be the toughest team we will have played so far this year (yes, that was a shot at Iowa State). While they are FCS, they are good. They are something like 8-3 against FBS opponents since 2006, including five straight wins.

That said, Iowa should win easily if they are as good as I think they are this year. But at least it sounds like the players are not taking NDSU lightly.

 

Was looking pretty good with Cincy taking a 16-12 lead into the 4th...DOH!! 2 td's + 2 pick 6's later and it ends 40-16 Houston.

Matt, thought about USC also, and it's really turned into a bitter rivalry w/Stanford, but until Helton wins a big game I'll stay away.

Lax, no Carson Wentz this time around, Hawkeyes should put them away by double digits.

EDIT: In this day and age of changing uniforms I'm proud to say the U of A 'new' unis are paying tribute to the USS Arizona in the the 75th anniversary year of her sinking in their game vs. the U of Hawaii. Also proud to say my old fraternity brother helped spearhead the project and is quoted in the article.

http://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/103794/arizonas-uniform-honors-the-life-of-the-battleship

 

North Dakota State won the first three of their five consecutive championships while not starting Wentz and they are still ranked number 1 in both FCS polls. That doesn't mean that there won't be a double digit margin of victory, but they certainly aren't playing just any FCS team.

Considering I'm a long ways from Conway and don't read their local news, I'm not sure about the general feelings regarding Coastal Carolina's football season. I'm excited about it though. They're ranked 17 and still have some offensive firepower. Their RB Henderson just passed former VT RB Lee Suggs by scoring in his 28th straight game - a record for D1 football. He'll have to score in every remaining game in order to catch Danny Woodhead's D3 record.

The big test though comes tomorrow when they travel to Jacksonville St to face the 5th ranked Gamecocks. Jacksonville St are not going to be happy after getting thumped 34-13 by LSU last week. I'm curious to see how well (or if) the defense holds up.

 

Okay, NOW I don't have to worry about FSU making a title run this year. I sure hope Louisville is awesome because otherwise this could be an embarrassing season for the Noles. Once this first loss is behind FSU all I really care about after that are victories over Florida and Miami.

 

MM, I'm stunned. And as I look at the schedule, the only real obstacle to an undefeated regular season is a trip to Death Valley on Oct. 1st. Houston at home could be a challenge, but if they get that far with no losses and a healthy Lamar Jackson, I don't see the Coogs winning. Is Louisville a "football school" now? We shall see.

 

They are not as good as I thought they were.

 

Looks like Joe fell asleep on guard duty, so I'll take the lead this week. Last week was a wild one with ND St taking down Iowa, Texas stumbling @ Cal, Louisville obliterating FSU & Oregon (what's an extra point?) gift wrapping a win for the Corn. Big wins for tOSU & Sparty while ND, Oklahoma & Ole Miss have pretty much been eliminated from playoff contention already. So what does this week hold?

12 Georgia @ 23 Miss - the Rebels could still be the 2nd best team in the SEC despite the 2 losses. UGA needed 4 turnovers to overcome Mizzou on the road, so I'll take Ole Miss to bounce back.

11 Wisconsin @ 8 Michigan St - still don't buy the Badgers & Sparty showed once again last week that you underestimate them at your peril. State wins a low scoring game.

19 Florida @ 14 Tennessee - every year is supposed to be the year they end the Gators streak recently, but they still haven't done it. Florida takes a hit losing Del Rio at qb for this game but that defense is nasty & the Vols oline struggled with App St & Ohio. Streak continues & Butch Jones's seat goes to scorching.

18 LSU @ Auburn - I included this one b/c it had one of the lowest lines in games featuring a ranked team. Auburn's d is pretty stout but I expect the Bayou Bengals to prevail. I do expect it'll be close.

7 Stanford @ UCLA - Stanford has leaned heavily on McCaffrey while struggling to throw the ball downfield. With the Bruins, it's largely dependant on which Josh Rosen shows up. I'm still not 100% on the Bruin oline, but I'll take them to pull off the mild upset.

17 Arkansas v 10 Texas A&M (in Jerry World) - the last 2 meetings have gone to OT & A&M has won all 4 of them since joining the SEC. The Hogs are physical, have an underrated qb & went on the road & knocked off TCU recently. Plus they have a very veteran team. I'll be the homer & take my Ags but this one could really go either way.

9 Washington @ Arizona - I know Joe likes leaving his team out of the picks but this one falls in that super late PAC12 time slot where crazy things happen, which is par for the course when these 2 teams hook up. I'll take the Snarlin' Pups though.

Upset Special -

I couldn't settle on just one so...Oklahoma St @ Baylor (-8.5). The Pokes have played well in tough losses to CMU & Pitt, who aren't bad teams. Baylor has yet to get going against cupcakes. I think all of the off field stuff is getting to the Bears & they're going to drop several games this year. I'll take Okie Lite to give them the 1st of those L's.

Nebraska (-7.5) @ Northwestern - Nebraska hasn't won their conference road opener since joining the B1G. While Northwestern pretty much stinks offensively, I like their defense and they always seem to throw a wrench in someone's season at home. I'll pick the Huskers to be their latest victim.

 

Thanks for taking point Matt;

#12 Georgia at #23 Ole Miss; Mississippi is capable of putting it on the likes of Florida State and Alabama, and then just as capable of getting stomped all in the same game. Hard to pick a team that looks like they'll fall apart at any moment, but I guess I'll go with them at home.

#11 Wisconsin at #8 Michigan State; Lost in Louisville's performance is Sparty trouncing Notre Dame in South Bend. Whisky squeaked by Georgia State while looking ahead, and they'll play better in East Lansing, but still not enough to beat MSU.

#19 Florida at #14 Tennessee; It's less than smart not to pick Florida, but I ain't the sharpest tool in the shed. The Vols finally get past the Gators.

#18 LSU at Auburn; Ugly matchup, one or both of these coaches in trouble. LSU wins 2-0.

#7 Stanford at UCLA; Stanford has owned UCLA (8 straight) of late, and look for it to continue. The Cardinal's young qb Burns has completed 68% of his passes, but only for 125 yards per game (about 40% of the yardage is to McCaffrey). The Bruins must start the game fast in order to have a chance.

#17 Arkansas v #10 Texas A&M; Game of the Day, with old school SWC feel with game playing in Jerry's World. Would not be surprised to see this go OT, I'll go with the Aggies to make one more play than the Hogs.

#8 Washington at Arizona; Arizona took a big step by firing their D Coordinator that played a system that not a single decent defensive lineman in America would be in their right mind to play. RichRod has his best ever class coming in, but for now the D line has to be the smallest/lightest line in the Power 5. Dawgs should be able to win this one easily.

Upset Alert: With my start it'd be an 'upset' if I actually got one right. Did like the Northwestern pick @tim. My brother said the Duck section in Lincoln were chanting 'kick it, kick it' last week as the Oregon coach pull out defeat from the jaws of victory. Speaking of whom:

Colorado at Oregon: The Buffs gave Michigan all they wanted in Ann Arbor, which should give them confidence heading to Eugene.

Princeton at Lehigh; I need to atone for not mentioning @sacffc and his Princeton Tigers in the initial post for this thread. Oranje Boven!!

 

Joe, is Lufau back for the Buffs? I thought my upset pick was looking good last week until he left with an injury...and their special teams were revealed to be a dumpster fire. If he's back, that's a good pick.

Also, have you seen the Ducks uniforms for this game?
I haven't been a big fan of the Oregon uniform shtick. I don't mind having multiple uniform options. But the first batch were eyesores with too much neon & the next batch featured every color but their school colors. I've liked the more recent run with the return to their traditional shades of green & yellow. However this is just too literal & cheesy for me.

 

Hadn't realized Lufau was hurt. I was thinking that Royce Freeman (best rb in west not named McCaffrey, that got hurt in the first series at Nebraska) was not going to play.

Lol, nope hadn't realized the Ducks were going to dress um' like ducks (orange shoes and socks...smh, my brother is getting a phone call). I guess when you got that much Nike $$ anything goes, but dang those are horrendous.

 

Well, back from the CU/Michigan game in Ann Arbor. Honestly, a little disappointed with the Big House. It was a nice experience and nice to finally go, but just a little underwhelming.

#12 Georgia at #23 Ole Miss; Both of these teams are capable of great and terrible play in the same game. Some how, UGA keeps finding ways to win, so I think i'm taking UGA with a small margin.

#11 Wisconsin at #8 Michigan State; MSU easily.

#19 Florida at #14 Tennessee; I agree SoCal. Vols.

#18 LSU at Auburn; Auburn finally pulls one off.

#7 Stanford at UCLA; This is probably my upset pick. I have no idea why honestly. I think Mora is playing this up as a "we just hope to make it a game" type of situation, but I think they come out firing.

#17 Arkansas v #10 Texas A&M; I'm sticking with the Hogs this week. I like what I've seen from them and really believe they're a good team.

#8 Washington at Arizona; Washington is #8? had no idea. I'll take Huskies.

Upset Alert: As mentioned above, I think Auburn wins. But I also like the Buffs this weekend if QB gets to play. if not, oh well.

 

A few takeaways:

• The Duck Dynasty is officially over in Eugene. CU with a true freshman qb still racked up 600 yards of offense. Rumors of Uncle Phil aka Phil Knight opening the checkbook for Chip Kelly when his NFL experiment fails are already in full swing.

• Les Miles gets the axe (with help from the Auburn clock operator). Watched the highlights and the end was a mess, but it looked like there should've been 2 or even 3 seconds left. I already feel bad for Houston coach Tom Herman who will be asked about that job countless times starting at his next presser.

• Felt like an idiot picking Tennessee when they started out bumbling around losing 21-0, they came roaring back and we'll see if it was the hurdle they needed to cross to go to the next level.

• Matt's boys were extremely impressive, time to readjust goals for the season.

• Stanford and Washington barely survive setting up a huge one this Friday.

 

Wisconsin smacking down Sparty on the road is an impressive win; Louisville continues to roll;
I'm sure Alabama, Ohio St and Michigan are all good I'm just not sure how good based on the competition to date; and for those who follow the irrelevant end of the football world my Hoosiers found a way to self-destruct against a not overly impressive Wake Forest squad by gift wrapping at least five interceptions.

 

@BarryWhite, thanks for pointing out Wisconsin, that was a great performance at Sparty. Sorry to hear about the Hoosiers struggles. No time tomorrow or Friday to get these in, but there are huge games this week:

#7 Stanford at #10 Washington (Friday). Winner here becomes the Pac 12's contender for a playoff berth. First time seeing UDub was last week in Tucson, and they got by my boys in OT. Big area of concern for the Huskies is Arizona ran for over 300 yards (granted our QB ran a lot) and by the second half the Cats were running with their 5th string rb and a wide receiver playing tailback. Now Christian McCaffrey is coming to Seattle. Stanford's big game experience could be the difference, but will go with the Huskies because I think the game will go into the 20's-30's, and that doesn't suit Stanford's conservative play calling.

#11 Tennessee at #25 Georgia. The Dawgs got mauled in Oxford and looked to be found out. The Vols should be flying high, so will go with them

#8 Wisconsin at #4 Michigan. No question Jim Harbaugh is a great coach, but that schedule is a joke. First 5 weeks at home?? Sorry but that's a freaking disgrace. @dtowndough I've heard that the Big House is really quiet for 100K so not surprised you were underwhelmed. Really pulling for Whisky, nothing against Meatchicken per se, but that schedule is so egregious I'm hoping justice prevails. That said I think sweeping the Michigan schools on the road in back to back weeks is too much to ask.

#3 Louisville at #5 Clemson. Just on form you'd have to say UL pretty easily, but college football doesn't always work that way. Clemson had some good players graduate so they were a little overrated and overconfident it appeared. It's been easy going so far for the Cardinals how will they respond in a close game?
Will still go w/Jump's team.

Upset Alert:
#19 Utah at Cal. Nothing really jumped out at me, but will take a flyer on this. Cal can't stop a running nose, but they'll throw it all over the lot. Utah w/emotional nail biters two weeks in a row (BYU by a point, then needing a 93 yard drive to beat USC).