Kentucky Derby 141

Yep, it's that time of year again. Another full 20 horse field (we'll get back to that in a minute). Bob Baffert, who hasn't won this race since 2002, has the favorites in American Pharoah and Dortmund, the latter a staggering 17 hands (almost 5'7") tall an 1300 pounds. But it's a strong field of 3 year olds with great credentials. Any of the top 8 has the resume' to win. For me, all bets are off when you get a stampede of the equine equivalent of tweeners. Personally I'd like to see the powers that be limit the field to 14, 16 at the most.
20 is too many, even at a mile and a quarter.
All that said, I'm going for my usual "value" horse...one that's not a co-favorite, but not 50 or 30 to 1. Problem is, there are some VERY good horses at 30 to 1, Bolo, Far Right and Tencendur. I'm going with International Star at 20-1. The owners, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, have won numerous meet owner titles at Churchill, an they're way overdue for a Derby win. That's it. Others have better credentials and higher profile riders, but I like the horse's form, recent results and works this week.
As an aside, today is also a big day at the Downs, something I did not learn until I moved here 34 years ago. The Kentucky Oaks is also 141 years old, an is the Derby for 3 year old fillies, run at an eight of a mile shorter than the Derby and featuring horses in the same class. It's the second biggest day of the year at Churchill, and the crowd has more local flavor, although that is changing. It averages 110,000 attendance, the 3rd largest annual crowd for a horse race in America after the Derby and the Preakness. The winner receives a garland of lillies, and the day is awash in pink for breast and ovarian cancer survivors. And the race is limited to 14, which I like. It tends to be a bit more chalk than the Derby, and this year's favorite is Stellar Wind, still a good value at 7-2 in the morning line. Jockey Victor Espinoza know how to win big races at Churchill, so it's probably a good bet. Chatterbox and Condo Commando are also worthy of a wager. We've had the the best Derby Week weather we've had in years, and you can most of the race card today and tomorrow on NBCSN starting at 12:30 p.m. Friday and Noon on Saturday. The NBC mother ship takes over for the Derby at 4 p.m. It's gonna be worth watching this year.

 

And a lot of people here are wondering how the Preakness is gonna go this year given recent developments in Bawmer.

 

Great Oaks Day yesterday, a wonderful win for Lovely Maria under chamber of commerce skies. But the news this morning isn't so good...my pick, International Star, has been scratched with a hoof crack. Field is now down to 18 after yesterday's scratch of El Kebeir, whose odds would have skewed the betting simply because Calvin Borel was his rider. Should be an awesome day to watch ponies at the track and on the tube. NBCSN picks it up after soccer. Shaping up to be a beautiful day. Could set another attendance record after yesterday's all time record Kentucky Oaks crowd of 123,763, beating the previous high by almost 8,000. My new pick is Materiality.

 

Big win for Baffert. A plodding 2:03 and change, however, will not scare off many challengers for the Preakness...if they hold it. But consider this...record crowd of 170,513! That's pretty darn impressive, even for the Kentucky Derby! Great weather day and I got sent out there at the last hour. Hung a wireless mic on the official starter and turned a story for our 11 o'clock news. With the weather being almost perfect, it was a great day in Louisville.

 

Here's some pics for y'all!

 

Thanks for sharing James!!! My wife and I know nothing about the horses, but we dvr-ed it so we can watch the 10 minutes before and the 10 minutes after. She loved American Pharoah's name and since Baffert is a UofA guy I was rooting for him also. Can he win 2 more to finally break the Triple Crown hex?

 

He's been really, really close twice Joe. To borrow the old soccer phrase, he was unlucky both times. Real Quiet lost by about four inches and Silver Charm by a half a length in the Belmont, so he knows how to get there. But it's been a while. The game really needs it right now, but the upward trend is looking good, to wit: http://www.courier-journal.com/stor...-nbcs-tv-ratings-highest-since-1992/26828019/
Don't know what the ratings were here locally, but I'm sure we will find out shortly.

 

It doesnt really matter a whole lot but I found it interesting that, just by watching the pre-race, I picked the top 3 finishers. Not the first time that happened, made a few bucks at parties years ago, but this time I had absolutely NO knowledge of any of them before the day.
my finish order:
Dortmund {based solely on the soccer ref}
American Pharoah {should have bet by giggles hunch}*
Firing Line

The takeaway is that the pre-show folks know their stuff... or are in on the fix... who knows!



Always bet the giggle!