College Football 2017-2018

BRING ME ALL THE BACON!

 

Whole mess of important games:

#7 Penn State at #24 Michigan State; Both teams coming off crushing losses. Expecting Penn State to bounce back.

#4 Clemson at #20 North Carolina State; The Wolfpack was going toe-to-toe w/Notre Dame than boom, were dominated in the second half. Have to think Clemson will repeat the same, but expect it to be closer in Raleigh.

#21 Stanford at #25 Washington State; Stanford is going w/a freshman QB. The good news is Bryce Love has been cleared to play. Leach doesn't seem to know which QB he prefers. Wazzu has been terrific at home, so I'll go w/them.

#19 LSU at #2 Alabama; Saban loves to scold the media about over-hyping his team (amongst other things). The players on the other hand will take being ranked #2 personally and will take it out on the Tigers.

#13 Virginia Tech at #10 Miami; The Canes have been playing w/fire and sooner or later won't be able to eek by. Va Tech is quietly smashing teams after their one loss. Going w/the Hokies.

#22 Arizona (Not a Typo) at #17 USC; Khalil Tate became the first player in the Pac (8, 10,or 12) ever to win the Conference Offensive Player of the Week for 4 consecutive weeks. He has lifted a squad that has 61 (Not a Typo) redshirt/true Freshmen about 10 levels. He's from LA and was recruited by SC, but felt they would never let him play QB. SC bounced back last week, and have to pick w/my head and say that they'll be too much for my young Cats, but so encouraged by this season.

Game of the Week
#5 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma State; Bedlam in Stillwater. The Sooners have looked so vulnerable, while the Pokes went on the road and took care of business. This is a playoff game, and while picking OU Lite seems like the call I'll go w/Baker Mayfield.

Upset Alert;
There will be a shocker somewhere, I'm guessing it's one of these:

#6 Ohio State at Iowa; The Hawkeyes are giant killers at home. The Buckeyes should win, but it won't be easy.

Texas at #8 TCU; The Longhorns are getting better. Not sure how TCU will respond after a loss.

#15 Iowa State at West Virginia; It's tough for a school like Iowa State to keep focused after a huge win.

#14 Auburn at Texas A&M; I know Matt will think I'm crazy after the Aggies disappointing performance last week, but wouldn't be surprised in the least if they pull off the upset.

 

What a great weekend of matchups as we roll into November. I can’t believe I forgot to pick Penn St v Ohio State last week.

Penn State @ Michigan St - the Nittany’s have struggled a bit on the road and Sparty is salty at home. However I think Penn State just has too much for them on offense and gets the win.

Clemson @ NC State - the Tigers needed an unlikely missed fg and ot to get the win in Death Valley last year. I think this game is going to hinge on the health of Kelly Bryant’s ankle. They say he’s okay and ND exposed something in State’s run d last week. I’ll take Clemson.

Stanford @ Washington St - another game that depends on the health of an ankle as the Cardinal barely beat the Beavers last week without Love. They’re just 2-2 on the road, but on a cold, icy Saturday night in the Palouse, I think Stanford wears the Cougs down with Love and the run game and grinds out a W. Also, Stanford is top 10 in to margin, Wazzu is among the worst in FBS.

LSU @ Alabama - For LSU same qb, no Fournette, same result. Tide rolls.

Va Tech @ Miami - at first glance, this looks like the obvious game for the Canes luck to run out. But Tech relies on FR at 2 key positions on offense and they’ve barely traveled this year (just 2 road games). They’ve also racked up those 7 wins against a pretty weak slate. I’m going with Miami in another close one.

Arizona @ USC - the Trojans solved their turnover problem last week, they’ve got more talent and they’re at home, so I’m picking them. But if they go back to being careless with the ball, the Cats are plenty capable of putting them in a hole they can’t dig out of.

Oklahoma & Okla St - OU owns this series with just 7 losses all time and having won 11 of the last 14. Every time State is good, they pull the Poke Choke in this game. Mayfield leads the Sooners to the win, bad d and all.

Upset -
Auburn @ Texas A&M (+15) - no Joe, I don’t think you’re crazy. The road team has won this game every year we’ve been in the SEC, our Nov swoons are no secret and we’re coming off an ugly loss. But...we came away with nothing twice after dropping balls in the end zone in that game and gave up 21 pts off of turnovers. Those are correctable mistakes and if you reverse just half of them, that’s a different game. No Pettway for Auburn and they’ve struggled protecting Stidham while we lead the conf in sacks. With UGA looming next week, this smells of a trap game.

WV is favored v Iowa St. TCU has been a terrible matchup for Texas in recent years, winning the last 3 by 103 pts. Iowa hasn’t beaten anyone with a pulse in a while.

I really wanted to pick Indiana over Wisconsin just so I could make a Stranger Things reference, but no.

 

Remember, you heard it here first!

 

But he only guessed one...

 

Don't be hating Evan, lol.

Stock Rising: Miami; the Canes set up an old school showdown with Notre Dame. I had NO idea that Hard Rock Stadium is a reburbished Joe Robbie Stadium, how they transformed that old eyesore is a amazing.
Stock Falling: The Big 10. Ohio State was destroyed, and Penn State was derailed by the long weather delay and a last second FG in East Lansing. That leaves Wisconsin and their poor schedule as the conference's lone hope.

 

As a Big 10 fan there can be no complaints about not being included in the playoffs.

 

This could be the week when total chaos insues because the Top 4 ranked teams have their hands full and it's highly doubtful they'll all come out unscathed;

Top 4:
#1 Georgia at #10 Auburn. I'm calling the upset on this. Stidham has gotten better every week, and if Auburn can force Georgia and their freshman QB to stop handing off the ball and win the game by throwing it the Tigers can pull it off.

#2 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State. The Tide's defense isn't rolling, it's limping into Starksville. They've lost some great players on that side of the ball. The Cowbells have looked great (LSU/A&M) and awful (Auburn/UMass). I'll still take Bama, but this could be dangerous if MSU brings their A game.

#3 Notre Dame at #7 Miami. Don't let the Canes ranking fool you, if they run the table they'll be in. The Irish have simply worn teams down w/old school smash mouth football. Miami played their best game of the season last week. I'll pick the Irish, but only because I'm wearing a green Dublin Ireland T-shirt right now.

Florida State at #4 Clemson. Should be the easiest of the 4, but perhaps the Noles (w/plenty of talent) can at least put a slice of swiss on their $#it sandwich of a season... Nah, Tigers win going away.

Playoff Game:
#6 TCU at #5 Oklahoma. The loser is toast. Will stick w/Mayfield in Norman.

The Lurkers:
#20 Iowa at #8 Wisconsin. Whisky with a chance to make a statement. Iowa has to be coming in w/a ton of confidence. It's at Camp-Randall so I'll go w/the Badgers.

#9 Washington at Stanford (Friday Night); The Huskies are the Pac 12's sole team w/even a chance, but will need to win and get a ton of help. Going w/the Cardinal to put us left coasters out of our misery.

Other Games
#12 Michigan State at #13 Ohio State; How are the Buckeyes going to respond after the shellacking they took? I'll say enough to get by Sparty.

#15 Oklahoma State at #21 Iowa State; The Pokes as usual went belly up vs the Sooners. They have however been excellent on the road so I'll go w/the bounce back in Ames.

 

FSU's season is so bad that I'm not even upset about it. It feels like an alternate universe where FSU football stinks. Any minute now, I'll take the blue pill, send the Enterprise-C back through the spacetime rift, have Superman reverse the Earth's spin, or otherwise restore things to their normal order. Hopefully in time for a bowl selection.

 

After last night, I guess I should be moving on to Hoops season. My Ags rolled out the ball last night in Germany and dropped #11 WV by 23, without 2 of our starters. Meanwhile, football is limping to the end of the Sumlin era.

We’ve got another great week of games, so on to the picks...

Georgia @ Auburn - taking the Dawgs b/c I don’t trust Malzahn in big games. Simple as that.

Alabama @ Miss State - the last time the Bulldogs beat Bama...2007, Nick Saban’s first year. The teams that have beaten State have shut down their run. The Tide is more than capable of doing that, despite the injuries.

Notre Dame @ Miami - I said last week that Miami’s luck was due to run out but that VT wasn’t the team to do it. The Irish are. Anyone else tired of hearing about this turnover chain?

FSU @ Clemson - not sure why this is on here, it won’t be close.

TCU @ Oklahoma - this is likely the first of 2 games between these 2 with the B12 championship returning this year. I’ll take the Sooners to take game 1 at home (but TCU to likely win the rematch).

Iowa @ Wisconsin - no games against the top 4 in the east AND Iowa at home? Sheesh. The Badgers are untested but I don’t like Iowa away from Kinnick. This whole B1G west thing feels like dejavu. So I’ll take Wisky to run the table before losing in the championship game.

Good call on Washington @ Stanford - the Pups’ injuries on offense were just too much to overcome. Plus Love’s ankle looked much improved.

Michigan St @ Ohio St - Sparty has played everyone close, but the Buckeyes have looked like a different team at the Horseshoe (outside of that first game). I can’t believe the line on this is 17. I like Sparty to cover in a loss.

Oklahoma St @ Iowa St - since that fluke upset in 11, the Pokes have had the Cyclones’ number more than anyone else in the B12. I like OSU in a shootout.

We’ve already had the big ranked vs unranked upset. If there’s another I think it comes from either:

#17 Va Tech @ Ga Tech - the road team has won each of the last four but all have been very close games.

#19 Wazzu @ Utah - the Utes have been struggling but I don’t have a lot of trust in the Coogs away from home. Besides, with UDub’s loss, this seems like the perfect time to Coog it.

Joe, I don’t think we can call anyone (outside of the PAC12) toast just yet. I’m convinced this will be the first year we get a 2 loss conference champ in the playoffs.

 

Yes. I'm officially tired of the turnover chain! That said The U is crashing the Top 4.

Bad losses this time of year are playoff killers. Georgia is the one that can recover, but Notre Dame & TCU are indeed toast.

 

No where near the slate of huge games of the last 2 weeks;

FUSA Special;
Minnesota @encorespanish at #23 Northwestern @tim The Wildcats as usual are exceptionally coached and have won 5 in a row. The Gophers have been inconsistent at best, but a W here or against Wisconsin at home will get the boat rowing in the right direction (or is it chopping wood?). Got to pick NW to make it 6.

Virginia at #3 Miami; The Hoos are no great shakes, but are respectable. Can never forget these are college kids and it would be natural for Miami to have a letdown after 2 huge wins. The Canes are still the obvious pick, but I can see UVA lingering far later than expected.

UCLA at #11 USC; A week early for almost all the other rivalries coming up, but it's the battle of LA. Sam Darnold has stopped giving teams the ball (15 td to 3 int last 5 games). The Teddy Bears have to be the worst tackling team (per talent ratio) in the country. The pride factor of a rivlary should help in that regard, so SC wins, but I think Ucla covers the 15.

Harvard at Yale; If college football is mustard the Ivy League is Grey Poupon ('but of course'), Yale will win their first Ivy title outright in 37 years. I would still love to see the IL champ go to the 1-AA playoffs.

Game of the Day;
#24 Michigan at #5 WIsconsin; While I'll still go with the Badgers at home, this has the makings of an upset. Somehow, a 2 loss Jim Harbaugh led MeatChicken is getting next to no respect (in polls or being a double digit dog in this one). Since they've made the switch to Brandon Peters at QB, they've pounded the rock and he hasn't made mistakes. All the pressure is on Whisky to not only win, but win big.

Upset Alert;
Tough week to find one, but I'll go w/Wake Forest at home to beat #19 North Carolina State in a mild upset.

 

@SoCalJoe it's definitely "Row the Boat" but it's tough to win when you've got guys rowing in different directions. I just hope to cover the spread at @tim 's alma mater.

 

Joe, if TCU wins out and beats OU in the rematch in the B12 Championship Game, they’d have a road win over OK St and a neutral site over OU with their losses being to OU and Iowa St, both on the road. That would put them ahead of ND and the P12 Champ. So unless you think the committee will put in 2 from a conference, that would put them in. The only way I see 2 from 1 conf is if Bama loses to Auburn. I don’t think anyone who loses in their conf champ game gets in. Those are basically de facto quarterfinal games. We’ll see.

Minnesota @ Northwestern - despite the Gophers’ most recent win, I can’t argue with the Cats streak. Plus they’re at home.

Virginia @ Miami - do the Canes play road games anymore? Can’t see the upset at home.

UCLA @ USC - agree with everything Joe said verbatim.

Harvard @ Yale - Yale hasn’t beaten Harvard at the Yale Bowl since 1999. I think they finally break that streak this week.

Michigan @ Wisconsin - so the Badgers do play a top 4 team from the east afterall. The Wolverines really have fallen off the radar. Unfortunately for them, I think the Badger d is too strong for Mich to get back on it ahead of the Ohio State game.

Upset -
#12 TCU @ Texas Tech (+7) - remember when I said TCU was still alive? Not for long. The Frogs lost leading rusher Anderson for the season and now Hill has been left at home for unspecified reasons. TCU will need to lean heavily on their d to get the win but that could be too difficult if an untested offense struggles on the road. I like the Sand Fleas here even though Baylor last week was their first win in about a month.

 

Rivalry Week:

Thursday; Egg Bowl: Ole Miss at #14 @dtowndough, Congrats on Southern Miss having a solid season and a win over Marshall from being 8-4, back to this game I don't think you'll be disappointed when the Bulldogs take care of business

Friday; South Florida at #15 Central Florida; These two are a combined 19-1 on the season (USF lost to Houston by 4). Will stick w/Central to keep the undefeated season going.

Saturday;
#9 Ohio State at Michigan; Simply not enough offense for Meatchicken, even though the Buckeyes have put in a couple puzzling performances this season.

#3 Clemson at #24 South Carolina; Every team on the outside looking in are Gamecocks fans this week. Not sure about Carolina's ranking, but I say they won't be ranked come next Tues.

Texas A&M at #18 LSU; Matt, what are the Aggies chances? I'll take the Bayou Bengals at home.

#8 Notre Dame at #21 Stanford; I'll take the Cardinal at home, but won't be surprised if ND get the W, more in part because Stanford gets so arch conservative on offense they keep other teams in games.

Apple Cup; #13 Washington State at #17 Washington; Wazzu playing for the Pac 12 North and payback for last year's beatdown. This one is going to come down to which QB makes a dumb error at the wrong time and I'll say it's Luke Falk, Dawgs to win.

GAME of the WEEK;

Iron Bowl; #1 Alabama at #6 Auburn; 2 loss Auburn controls it's own destiny. As much as I want to pick the Tigers, it's hard to pick against Nick Saban against Gus Mahlzan. Bama found a way in Starksville a couple weeks ago and will again on Saturday.

Upset Alert;
#25 Virginia Tech at Virginia; Wahoos had their chances to beat Miami, but seal the deal this week.

#23 Boise State at Fresno State; This is a big rivalry game out west. Jeff Tedford has proven he can still flat out coach since taking over at FSU. Boise started slow, but has been on a roll.

 

Someone leaked or planted the story with the media that Sumlin would be fired after LSU, regardless of outcome. So naturally, the press greet the players and coaches with questions about that as they’re coming off the practice field to do weekly media on Tuesday, and of course, this is news to all of them. I have zero problem firing Sumlin, but that’s a shitty way to handle things. LSU has owned us since we joined the SEC and I don’t see recent developments helping our morale. I didn’t think we’d roll into Death Valley at night and get a W even before that happened.

Ole Miss @ Miss St - State, easily. The Rebels can’t stop the run and State can, making Ta’amu one dimensional.

S Fla @ C Fla - the Bulls have been flirting with losses regularly this past month, and did lose to UH. The Knights have been rolling. I’ll take them at home.

Ohio St @ Michigan - not sure if Peters is playing or that it matters. After what I saw against the Badgers, I think Ohio St will win, possibly with ease.

Clemson @ S Carolina - I’m really tempted to go with the upset here but won’t. This Gamecock team is salty but I think they just won’t have enough offense to get it done.

Notre Dame @ Stanford - I was surprised just how slow the Irish looked against Miami. Not just team speed, but how long it takes their plays to develop. That plays into Stanford’s hands and I think the Cardinal pull it out.

Wash St @ Washington - the Snarlin Pups of Montlake own the Coogs. When they’re better, they crush them. When they’re worse, they still find a way to win. And they almost never lose this game in Seattle. Dawgs win.

Alabama @ Auburn - People keep looking for holes in the Tide’s game and this seems to be a popular upset pick. Still don’t trust Malzahn in big games, so I’m going with Bama.

Upsets - 8 of the top 10 are on the road this weekend and I think at least 2 will fall. I already picked ND to be one of them but that game is essentially a pick em. So for the other, I’ll go with:

#2 Miami @ Pittsburgh (+13.5) - the Canes finally leave the friendly confines of home for the first time in almost a month and they’ll get a chilly, fairly empty pro stadium to play in. While there’s no doubt they’re riding high on confidence, the weather and lack of atmosphere could be factors in them playing flat and getting knocked off.

 

And in the basketball schools pretend football rivalry week:

Louisville @ Kentucky - The Cards are favored, but don't be fooled by the line. The only way they make the 10 point favorite hold up is if their suddenly healthy, resurgent defense continues that upward trend. They might. If they can stop Benny Snell, they should be able to stop UK's passing attack (no 1,000 yard receivers in sight). And Louisville still has Lamar Jackson. He'll want to atone for last season's late fumble at home that cost his team the game. His numbers are comparable to last year, and a huge day might put him back into this year's Heisman race, due to Baker Mayfield's meltdown. The Wildcats are the better team, but you know how that goes. If the Cards get on top early and stay there, it could get ugly. But it'll probably be close, perhaps coming down to special teams. Louisville should win either way.

Indiana @ Purdue - The Old Oaken Bucket game means bowl eligibility for the winner. Indiana should win on the strength of their defense, but Jeff Brohm is the kind of offensive mind that can find a way around that. The Boilermakers are home, IU has won four in a row in this series, and Purdue is much improved. Boiler Up!

 

Great call on Pitt, Mateo

 

Once AGAIN you heard it here first! Wow.

 

Championship Week with great storylines. Off the field the coaching carousel has been crazy, none more than the dumpster fire that is Tennessee. Really big surprise so far is Herm Edwards at age 63 looks to be in at Arizona State. WIll Jimbo Fisher be lured to College Station? Ucla behind Casey Wasserman's $$ (he's the Phil Knight or TBoone Pickens for the Bruins) went all in with Chip Kelly. To the games:

Pac 12 (Friday)
#12 Stanford vs #10 USC: A recurring theme on these picks are rematches of earlier games and how hard it is for teams to beat other good teams twice in the same season. Bryce Love looks to be healthy and I'm going w/the Cardinal to get revenge over SC.

American Athletic
#20 Memphis vs #14 UCF: Scott Frost will leave for Nebraska (this might be the one opportunity to get that job, just can't see him turning it down). UCF routed Memphis the first time, and I'll say they win again, but it's going to be close. Tennessee should consider Memphis coach Mike Norvell, only 36, but what do they have to lose at this point.

PLAYOFF Games:
Big 12
#11 TCU vs #3 Oklahoma: OU wins they're in, still think TCU is toast, just can't see them getting in ahead of Bama, Ohio State (if they beat Wisconsin), or even USC (if they beat Stanford handily). That said the war of words this week between Gary Patterson and Lincoln Riley has been awesome and I'm going w/the Horned Frogs as an upset pick (and disappointing TV execs w/no Baker Mayfield in the Playoff).

ACC
#1 Clemson vs #7 Miami: Bottom line is if Canes pull off the upset they'll leapfrog teams and get in. However, just don't see it happening, Clemson wins this very comfortably.

Big 10
#4 Wisconsin vs #8 Ohio State: I'm going w/Whisky to play their way in. I just can't get the Iowa beatdown out of my head. Throw in if Michigan had any sort of QB (poor kid missed about 10-12 easy pitch and catch throws) they would've beaten the Buckeyes, so like the Badgers chances.

SEC
#6 Georgia vs #2 Auburn: Auburn in my mind is the better team...but I'll go w/the Bulldogs because of a combination of being embarrassed by Auburn a few weeks ago, playing at a 'neutral' site in Atlanta (more like 60/40 or more in terms of fan ratio for UGA), and it being really hard for the Tigers to equal their level of play from the Iron Bowl.

So from those picks the SCJ Kiss of Death Final 4 looks like: Clemson, Georgia, Wisconsin, and.....Alabama (not necessarily deserved, but as Clint would say: