Summer Transfer Window 2015

I offer a pragmatic view, in part, to temper expectations in the hopes of minimizing the over the top criticisms. You're not one to do that, and I'm certainly not trying to rain on your parade. I just caution against overestimating a team that still has quite a few flaws, imo. Of course I hope I'm wrong.

While I think I have a pretty good feel for the league, I have a better feel for us & how teams have played us. This isn't any different than you predicting how far Zona hoops will go in the tourney. You may not be spot on, but you can tell the difference in what your team looks like when they're an NIT team, a tourney team, a Sweet 16 team or a Final 4 team. You don't need to know the field in depth to give a pretty darn accurate assessment.

So who are the 8-10? I think Brighton, Cardiff, Hull, Boro, QPR & Burnley are better than us. The other 2-4 teams will come from a group of Ipswich, Brum, Charlton, Leeds, Forest & Derby. I might be overlooking a couple and I might be over rating a couple.

Btw Joseph, you did ask to be called overly optimistic.

 

I checked the updated promotion odds on 3 sites post transfer window & we're listed as tied for 16th, tied for 18th & 19th. Take that for whatever you will.

 

I think the defense and midfield have been upgraded over last season. Fewer goals allowed should mean more points and that by itself will see Fulham finish comfortably midtable IF we can find goals. McCormack is probably going to need to duplicate or exceed last seasons output and the trio of Dembele, Woodrow and Smith plus the midfield will need fill in for what we lost this summer. Come January I think there is a good chance Fulham are shopping for a striker unless someone shows a proclivity for scoring soon.

Overall this looks like a good summer window.

 

Here's a recap of what happened this Summer:

GK Lonergan
GK Lewis (loan)
D Richards
D Garbutt (loan)
D Fredericks
D Ream
D Stearman
M Cairney
M Mattila
M Pringle
M O'Hara

Here is why I'm feeling pretty good about things overall. We got the equivalent of a whole new back line, which we really needed (I didn't include Husband since he came on a 1 month deal, we'll see what happens there). We also made some strong additions to the mid-field. I've really liked what I've seen from Cairney and O'Hara so far.

We got four players who had been voted Players of the Year. Yes, being PotY from Blackpool is like graduating valedictorian from SUNY Cortland, but still better than some guy who hadn't played in the past year and had most recently spent time playing in the fourth tier of the Swiss football league - we really signed that guy last year.

Last year we only got three guys with Championship experience - McCormack, Smith, and Kiraly. The other 11 came from the hinterlands. This year we have just have two, and to be fair, Garbutt comes from a Premier League team, so only Mattila feels like he belongs in last year's signings. Plus no one this year plays in sweatpants.

So this team is far, far better than the team that Kit cobbled together to get out of relegation and finish with only a modest amount of anxiety in the closing weeks of the season. The teams we've lost to this year are currently #1 and #2 and we kept them close. Sure, I'm also concerned that we can't score enough goals, but in our first 5 games our offense scored enough for us to have a record of 2 wins and 3 draws if we hadn't had some late defensive lapses.

What do I expect? A upper-mid-table finish just outside of the playoffs. I'll say a crushing loss to Brentford the last week of April that takes us out of the running and of course triggers the mob to call for Kit's head.

Normally I follow a personal philosophy of Positive Pessimism (trademarked, I'm going to be a motivational, maybe de-motivational, speaker with that someday) - expect the worst and you'll be happy with just about any other outcome. Kinda like what AggieMatt described. Yet with Fulham I can't help but feel, what's the word? Optimistic! I felt optimistic last year that Magath was some mad genius (half-right on that one) and look where that got me. This year will be different, right?! COYW!!

 

It's hardly an exact science, thus why I said take that for whatever you will. Case in point, the relegated Prem teams are listed as promotion favorites by default most years.

I found one preseason odds list from last year, but it's from early August, so not after the window closed. Final place in standings in parentheses.

Promotion:
Cardiff (11)
Derby (8)
Norwich (3)
Fulham (17)
Wigan (23)
Brighton (20)
Wolves (7)
Forest (14)

Relegation:
Blackpool (24)
Millwall (22)
Rotherham (21)
Brentford (5)
Brum (10)

Thats just one bookie from one year, but it pretty much makes Don's case, at least on the promotion end.

Going back to the season we were relegated, I found one with us 14th & one with us 16th. I picked us to be relegated that year, fwiw.

 

Don, I think your memory is being skewed by the time you spent there a little. In the 60's, there were 9 different 1st Division champs and it was completely as you say. However, throughout the history of the league, going as back as far as post WWI, there have only been either 4 or 5 champs in any decade. There was one decade with 6.

The Prem launched in 92 so it's been going for 23 years. There were 4 champs in that first half (United, Arsenal, Chelsea & Blackburn) but there have only been 3 since '05 (City, United & Chelsea). It's definitely more elite at the top now, but you still have clubs from the bottom turning over the big boys.

 

Who was that?

Echoing Don's sentiments: it's way too early and there's still so much left to play (I did not know about Bournemouth's 8pts from 7 matches). The Championship is really like the MLB season, and we're barely into the first month of either. On May 1, Texas was the worst team in the AL. Now they may take the AL West.

Going back to the Thread: this was the most sensible transfer window since ... Hughes? I'd have preferred another ST be brought in (esp with Taggart going out) as we're currently down to 3 active (what's the timeline on Smith?). If any of Ross, Moussa, or Woodrow get hurt we're suddenly quite thin at that position.

 

I think I misunderstood your point. Mine was that, unlike the Championship/2nd Divsion, the First Division has almost always had periods of dominance from any given team. This is reflected in the fact that in the pre Premier League era, going back to 1920, there were only 19 different champions in 65 seasons of football. Compare that to the Championship/2nd Division where there have been 44 different champs since 1920 (88 seasons). The one exception was the 60's where it truly was anyone's guess from year to year who would win b/c no one or 2 teams dominated the decade. But re-reading your post, that wasn't what you were saying, so mea culpa.

 

That was Dino Fazlic: http://www.transfermarkt.com/dino-fazlic/profil/spieler/87067