Fulham v Swansea

But if you go back and look at the stats for each of the past 5 matches, Swansea have always had 60% possession against us. I kid you not! They're a much better team than we're giving them credit for, even if they didn't have Michu and Hernández available on Saturday.

Conversely, we're giving Cardiff, Sunderland, Hull way too much credit. Sunderland are doomed (you can't follow up a "massive" win over City with a loss to Stoke, red card or not), while Cardiff & Hull are punching above their weight and running on sheer momentum. And the talent gap will catch up with them and the momentum will dissipate in the coming month as it does for (just about) every newly promoted side every single season. Consider, for context, at this time:

Last year West Ham were 7th; finished 10th despite losing 13 of final 26 games.
In 11/12 QPR were 9th; *baaaaaaarely* survived on final day
In 10/11 Newcastle were 5th, finished 12th. Blackpool were 14th, but lost 13 of final 26 games and got relegated
In 09/10 Burnley were 9th, relegated without much fuss

This is going to be a very ugly, joyless season. Wait, it already is. I agree that we very well could go down, but equating it to Derby is a stretch.

 

Swansea may be a much better team but we've been offering up performances that have been increasingly tepid each year as well. The fact that they can so reliably reach 60%+ possession and outshoot us, regardless of injuries, may speak as much to how easy it is to gameplan for a Martin Jol team than it speaks to Swansea's quality.

As for Derby. Yes, Don is reaching a bit...but maybe not as much as it appears on the surface. Derby went 1-8-29 for 11 pts. We sit on 10 pts and it's hard to see more coming. But if you were to track out what we've done so far (or been fortunate to do if you will), we'd get 31-33 pts. Derby's goals for/against was 20/89. We're on pace for 35/67. But here's where it gets alarming. Derby County managed 347 shots with 182 on target. Their opposition took 578 shots with 311 on target against them. Fulham is on pace to take 288 shots with 108 on target while surrendering 760 shots with 231 on target. That Derby team set the benchmark for bad, and we can't outshoot them. And we don't defend as well. That's scary.

 

That is scary Matt.